espEconomy: strategy and practiceEconomy: strategy and practice1997-99672663-550XИнститут экономики10.51176/1997-9967-2025-1-90-102esp-1534Research ArticleЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЙ РОСТ И УСТОЙЧИВОЕ РАЗВИТИЕECONOMIC GROWTH AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENTВлияние урбанизации на выбросы парниковых газов: комплексный анализThe Impact of Urbanization on Greenhouse Gas Emissions: A Multidimensional Analysishttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-1708-8208БектургановаМ. С.BekturganovaM. S.

PhD, ведущий научный сотрудник.

ул. Шевченко 28, А25К1В0, Алматы

87013752114

Makpal S. Bekturganova – PhD, Leading Researcher, Institute of Economics CS MSHE RK.

28 Shevchenko Str., A25K1B0, Almaty

87013752114

maka_91@inbox.ruИнститут экономики КН МНВО РККазахстанInstitute of Economics CS MSHE RKKazakhstan20251004202520190102Copyright © Бектурганова М.С., 20252025Бектурганова М.С.Bekturganova M.S.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://esp.ieconom.kz/jour/article/view/1534

Сегодня городские районы считаются значительными источниками выбросов CO₂, что делает проблему замедления изменения климата особенно актуальной. Цель исследования – провести анализ влияния урбанизации на выбросы парниковых газов выявляя ключевые экономические, социальные и экологические факторы, а также предложить рекомендации для устойчивого развития городов. Исследование основано на эконометрическом анализе панельных данных 107 стран за 2004-2023 гг., собранных из базы Всемирного банка (WDI). В работе используются линейные регрессионные модели для изучения связи между уровнем урбанизации и выбросами CO₂. Полученные результаты показывают, что существует отрицательная корреляция между урбанизацией и выбросами CO₂ (-0.361), что указывает на возможность снижения выбросов при компактном развитии городов. Основным фактором увеличения выбросов является потребление энергии (R² = 0.8541). Использование возобновляемых источников энергии оказывает значительное влияние на снижение выбросов CO₂ (-0.585). В Казахстане высокая зависимость от угольной энергетики приводит к росту выбросов, однако увеличение доли возобновляемых источников энергии (-0.830) может значительно улучшить экологическую ситуацию. Таким образом, результаты исследования подтверждают, что урбанизация, при условии компактного городского планирования и внедрения возобновляемых источников энергии, может способствовать снижению выбросов CO₂ на душу населения. В дальнейшем целесообразно изучить конкретные стратегии снижения выбросов, применимые к Казахстану, включая развитие умных городов и внедрение низкоуглеродных технологий. Работа имеет практическую ценность, предлагая рекомендации по интеграции устойчивого использования энергии, эффективной инфраструктуры и экологического управления в процесс урбанизации Казахстана.

Today, urban areas are considered significant sources of CO₂ emissions, making the problem of climate change particularly urgent. This study aims to analyze urbanization’s impact on greenhouse gas emissions, identify key economic, social, and environmental factors, and propose recommendations for sustainable urban development. The study is based on econometric analysis of panel data collected from 107 countries from 2004 to 2023 from the World Development Indicators (WDI) database, using linear regression models to examine the relationship between urbanization levels and CO₂ emissions. Results show a negative correlation (-0.361) between urbanization and emissions, indicating the potential for reducing emissions through compact urban development, with energy consumption as the main factor contributing to increased emissions (R² = 0.8541). Renewable energy use has a significant effect on reducing emissions (-0.585). In Kazakhstan, high dependence on coal-fired power leads to an increase in emissions. However, an increase in the share of renewable energy sources can significantly improve the environmental situation (-0.830). Thus, the results of the study confirm that urbanization, provided by compact urban planning and the introduction of renewable energy, can contribute to reducing CO₂ emissions per capita. It is advisable to study specific future strategies for reducing emissions in Kazakhstan, including developing smart cities and low-carbon technology. The work has practical value, offering recommendations on integrating sustainable energy use, efficient infrastructure, and environmental management into Kazakhstan’s urbanization process.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.