espEconomy: strategy and practiceEconomy: strategy and practice1997-99672663-550XИнститут экономики10.51176/1997-9967-2025-3-6-18esp-1626Research ArticleМИРОВАЯ ЭКОНОМИКАTHE GLOBAL ECONOMYФакторы развития неформальной экономики в странах Центральной Азии и КавказаFactors of Informal Economy Development in Central Asia and the Caucasushttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9754-3383ТлеппаевА. М.TleppayevArsen M.

Тлеппаев А.М. – PhD, ассоциированный профессор, 

ул. Пушкина, 111, Алматы.

Arsen M. Tleppayev – PhD, Associate Professor, 

111, Pushkin St., Almaty.

arsentlp@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6937-8824ВелескоС.VelescoSerge

Велеско С. – PhD, профессор, 

17, Техникумплатц, Митвайда, Саксония.

Serge Velesco – PhD, Professor, 

17, Technikumplatz, Mittweida, Saxony.

velesco@hs-mittweida.dehttps://orcid.org/0009-0007-8649-6412ХаустовичН. А.KhaustovichNatallia A.

Хаустович Н.А. – к.э.н., ассоциированный профессор, 

26, пр. Партизанский, Минск.

Natallia A. Khaustovich – Cand. Sc. (Econ.), Associate Professor, 

26, Partizansky Ave., Minsk. 

natahk@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-4319-4242СадыковЕ. Т.SadykovErkin T.

Садыков Е.Т. – д.э.н., генеральный директор, 

ул. Шевченко, 28, Алматы.

Erkin T. Sadykov – Doc. Sc. (Econ.), General Director, 

28, Shevchenko St., Almaty.

sadykov.et@gmail.comКазахстанско-Немецкий УниверситетКазахстанKazakh-German UniversityKazakhstanУниверситет прикладных наук МитвайдыГерманияMittweida University of Applied SciencesGermanyБелорусский государственный экономический университетБеларусьBelarus State Economic UniversityBelarusИнститут экономики КН МНВО РККазахстанInstitute of Economics CS MSHE RKKazakhstan202506102025203618Copyright © Тлеппаев А.М., Велеско С., Хаустович Н.А., Садыков Е.Т., 20252025Тлеппаев А.М., Велеско С., Хаустович Н.А., Садыков Е.Т.Tleppayev A.M., Velesco S., Khaustovich N.A., Sadykov E.T.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://esp.ieconom.kz/jour/article/view/1626

Неформальная экономическая деятельность создает значительные трудности для фискальной устойчивости, эффективности регулирования и инклюзивного развития в регионе. Цель данного исследования – выявить и проанализировать ключевые факторы, влияющие на уровень неформальной экономики в странах Центральной Азии и Кавказа. Эмпирическая база основана на панельных данных по шести странам (Казахстан, Кыргызстан, Таджикистан, Азербайджан, Армения и Грузия), собранных из статистики Всемирного банка и МВФ. В качестве метода использована панельная регрессионная модель со случайными эффектами, учитывающая влияние макроэкономических и институциональных переменных. Результаты показали, что рост ВВП на душу населения статистически значимо сокращает размеры неформальной экономики (коэффициент – 0,00026, p < 0,001), подтверждая обратную зависимость между доходом и теневым сектором. Финансовое развитие оказывает сильное отрицательное влияние          (–13,43, p < 0,001), подчеркивая роль инфраструктуры и цифровых финансов в формализации. Урбанизация проявляет двойственный эффект: на ранних стадиях способствует росту неформальной занятости, однако в зрелых городских системах снижает её уровень (–0,41, p < 0,001). Открытость торговли, напротив, положительно коррелирует с неформальной экономикой (+0,019, p < 0,001), что указывает на риски либерализации без сопутствующей цифровизации таможенных процедур. Полученные результаты подтверждают необходимость реализации целенаправленных государственных мер по формализации экономики через цифровую налоговую инфраструктуру, расширение финансовой доступности и упрощение процедур регистрации бизнеса. Будущие исследования могут быть направлены на изучение налоговых искажений и неравенства в распределении богатства как факторов, поддерживающих неформальный сектор.

Informal economic activity poses significant challenges to fiscal capacity, regulatory efficiency, and inclusive development across the region. The purpose of this study is to identify and analyze the key factors influencing the level of the informal economy in Central Asia and the Caucasus. The empirical database is based on panel data for six countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia) compiled from statistics from the World Bank and the IMF. A panel regression model with random effects was applied, taking into account the impact of macroeconomic and institutional variables. The results show that higher GDP per capita significantly reduces the size of the informal economy (coefficient –0.00026, p < 0.001), confirming the inverse relationship between income and the shadow sector. Financial development has a strong negative impact (–13.43, p < 0.001), highlighting the role of infrastructure and digital finance in formalization. Urbanization demonstrates a dual effect: in its early stages, it contributes to the growth of informal employment, but in mature urban systems, it reduces its level (–0.41, p < 0.001). Trade openness, on the contrary, positively correlates with the informal economy (+0.019, p<0.001), which indicates the risks of liberalization without accompanying digitalization of customs procedures. The findings confirm the need for targeted state measures to formalize the economy through digital tax infrastructure, expanded financial inclusion, and simplified business registration procedures. Future research may focus on examining tax distortions and wealth inequality as factors sustaining the informal sector.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.