espEconomy: strategy and practiceEconomy: strategy and practice1997-99672663-550XИнститут экономики10.51176/1997-9967-2025-3-85-105esp-1633Research ArticleСОЦИАЛЬНАЯ ПОЛИТИКА И КАЧЕСТВО ЖИЗНИSOCIAL POLICY AND QUALITY OF LIFEПланирование образовательной инфраструктуры в Казахстане в условиях демографического роста с использованием цифровых инструментов поддержки принятия решенийPlanning Educational Infrastructure in Kazakhstan under Demographic Growth with Digital Decision-Support Toolshttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-7280-7071АйдархановаГ. Б.AidarkhanovaGaukhar B.

Айдарханова Г.Б. – PhD, старший преподаватель,

Алматы.

Gaukhar B. Aidarkhanova – PhD, Senior Lector, 

 71, al-Farabi Ave., Almaty.

gauhar_222@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5806-5638АубакироваГ. Б.AubakirovaGaukhar B.

Аубакирова Г.Б. – старший преподаватель,

Алматы.

Gaukhar B. Aubakirova – Senior Lector, 

71, al-Farabi Ave., Almaty.

gauhara_91@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5294-2671НюсуповаГ. Н.NyussupovaGulnara N.

Нюсупова Г.Н. – д.г.н., профессор,

Алматы.

Gulnara N. Nyussupova – Doc. Sc (Geogr.), Professor, 

71, al-Farabi Ave., Almaty.

gulnaran@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0009-0007-3147-4945ЖумагуловЧ. Б.ZhumagulovChingiz B.

Жумагулов Ч.Б. – PhD докторант,

Алматы.

Chingiz B. Zhumagulov – PhD student, 

71, al-Farabi Ave., Almaty.

c.zhumagulov@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2538-1287ЖақыпбекА. М.ZhakypbekAbzal M.

Жақыпбек А.М. – старший преподаватель,

Алматы.

Abzal M. Zhakypbek – Senior Lector, 

71, al-Farabi Ave., Almaty.

bzikasd@gmail.comКазахский национальный университет им. аль-ФарабиКазахстанal-Farabi Kazakh National UniversityKazakhstan20250610202520385105Copyright © Айдарханова Г.Б., Аубакирова Г.Б., Нюсупова Г.Н., Жумагулов Ч.Б., Жақыпбек А.М., 20252025Айдарханова Г.Б., Аубакирова Г.Б., Нюсупова Г.Н., Жумагулов Ч.Б., Жақыпбек А.М.Aidarkhanova G.B., Aubakirova G.B., Nyussupova G.N., Zhumagulov C.B., Zhakypbek A.M.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://esp.ieconom.kz/jour/article/view/1633

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Accelerated and uneven demographic growth in Kazakhstan is shaping spatially differentiated demand dynamics for places in early childhood education institutions and first-grade classes, necessitating anticipatory planning. The aim of the study is to analyze the impact of demographic growth on preschool and primary education infrastructure, to forecast the demand for places using the cohort-age method, and to develop targeted recommendations to prevent infrastructure shortages. The study applies an agecohort (cohort-component) projection integrated with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and business intelligence (BI) visualization to assess regional needs without relying on school “capacity” calculations. In 2029, the number of preschool-age children is expected to increase primarily in the southern and western regions, indicating the need to expand the network of early childhood education providers. By 2030, the highest first-grade intake is projected in Almaty region (approximately 5.8 thousand), Kyzylorda region (approximately 5.4 thousand), and Shymkent city (approximately 5.9 thousand). Regression analysis confirmed the significant impact of fertility (β=0.48; p<0.01) and migration (β=0.31; p<0.05) on the infrastructural load. These estimates provide a foundation for prioritizing and phasing in additional seats, planning workforce needs, targeting the allocation of resources and subsidies, and aligning construction plans with anticipated demographic dynamics, measures that will promote more equitable access to education and strengthen the resilience of regional systems.

DemographyDemographic GrowthEducationEducational InfrastructureEducational StrategyRegional EconomyCapacity ShortfallsWorkforce PlanningThe study was carried out within the framework of program-targeted funding by the Science Committee of the MSHE RK under the project “Sustainable development of naturalindustrial and socio-economic systems of the West Kazakhstan region in the context of green growth: a comprehensive analysis, concept, forecast estimates and scenarios” IRN BR21882122.ReferencesAbdullah, S., Hussain, N. H. M., Haron, N., Jalil, S. A., & Osoman, M. A. (2023). GIS-based interactive technology in demographic record management and mapping towards sustainable community. International Journal of Sustainable Construction Engineering and Technology, 14(3), 366–375. https://doi.org/10.30880/ijscet.2023.14.03.031Abdullah, S., Hussain, N. H. M., Haron, N., Jalil, S. A., & Osoman, M. A. (2023). 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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.