espEconomy: strategy and practiceEconomy: strategy and practice1997-99672663-550XИнститут экономики10.51176/1997-9967-2026-1-6-20esp-1835Research ArticleСОЦИАЛЬНАЯ ПОЛИТИКА И КАЧЕСТВО ЖИЗНИSOCIAL POLICY AND QUALITY OF LIFEВлияние развития человеческого капитала на экономический рост в НигерииImpact of Human Capital Development on Economic Growth in NigeriaМусаИ. А.MusaI. A.

Муса И.А. – PhD докторант

участок 681, кадастровая зона C-00, район исследований и учреждений,  объездная дорога аэропорта Джаби, Абуджа, Федеральная столичная территория

Iya Abershi Musa – PhD Candidate

Plot 681, Cadastral Zone C-OO, Research & Institution Area, Jabi Airport Bypass, Abuja FCT

20233611@nileuniversity.edu.ngАньянвуС. И.AnyanwuS.

Аньянву С.И. – профессор по экономике

участок 681, кадастровая зона C-00Аньянву С.И. – профессор по экономике, район исследований и учреждений,  объездная дорога аэропорта Джаби, Абуджа, Федеральная столичная территория

Sarah Anyanwu – Professor of Economics 

Plot 681, Cadastral Zone C-OO, Research & Institution Area, Jabi Airport Bypass, Abuja FCT

sarahanyanwu2003@yahoo.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-6292-1161ОзилиП. К.OziliP. K.

Озили П.К. – старший экономист

Абуджа, Федеральная столичная территория

Peterson K. Ozili – Senior Economist

Abuja, Federal Capital Territory

petersonkitakogelu@yahoo.comУниверситет Нила НигерииНигерияNile University of NigeriaNigeriaЦентральный банк НигерииНигерияCentral Bank of NigeriaNigeria202605042026211620Copyright © Муса И.А., Аньянву С.И., Озили П.К., 20262026Муса И.А., Аньянву С.И., Озили П.К.Musa I.A., Anyanwu S., Ozili P.K.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://esp.ieconom.kz/jour/article/view/1835

Развитие человеческого капитала рассматривается как один из ключевых факторов устойчивого экономического роста, однако для Нигерии вопрос о сравнительном влиянии государственных расходов на здравоохранение и образование в разрезе текущих и капитальных затрат остается недостаточно изученным. Целью данного исследования является оценка влияния развития человеческого капитала на экономический рост в Нигерии. Методологическую основу составляет модель авторегрессии с распределенными лагами (ARDL), позволяющая оценить краткосрочные и долгосрочные эффекты между переменными при смешанном порядке их интеграции. Эмпирическая база охватывает годовые данные по Нигерии за 1970–2024 гг. по темпу роста ВВП, государственным текущим расходам на здравоохранение, государственным капитальным расходам на здравоохранение, государственным текущим расходам на образование и государственным капитальным расходам на образование. Результаты показали, что переменная экономического роста стационарна на уровне, тогда как остальные переменные стационарны в первых разностях, что подтверждает применимость ARDL-подхода. Долгосрочные оценки ARDL показали, что текущие расходы на образование оказывают положительное и статистически значимое влияние на экономический рост (β = 0,039955; p = 0,0067), как и капитальные расходы на образование (β = 0,072462; p = 0,0030), тогда как влияние расходов на здравоохранение оказалось статистически незначимым: для капитальных расходов β = -0,03087 (p = 0,6185), для текущих расходов β = -0,06336 (p = 0,1414). Полученные результаты показывают, что наибольший вклад в экономический рост Нигерии вносят именно образовательные расходы, особенно капитальные вложения в образовательную инфраструктуру. 

Human capital development is considered as one of the key factors of sustainable economic growth, however, for Nigeria, the issue of the comparative impact of government spending on health and education in terms of current and capital expenditures remains poorly understood. The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of human capital development on economic growth in Nigeria. The methodological basis is the distributed lag autoregression model (ARDL), which makes it possible to evaluate the short- and long-term effects between variables with a mixed order of their integration. The empirical base covers annual data for Nigeria from 1970-2024 on GDP growth rate, government current health expenditure, Government capital expenditure on health, Government current education expenditure and Government capital expenditure on education. The results showed that the economic growth variable is stationary at the level, while the other variables are stationary in the first differences, which confirms the applicability of the ARDL approach. ARDL's long-term estimates showed that current education expenditures have a positive and statistically significant impact on economic growth (β = 0.039955; p = 0.0067), as do capital expenditures on education (β = 0.072462; p = 0.0030), while the impact of healthcare costs turned out to be statistically insignificant: for capital expenditures β = -0.03087 (p = 0.6185), for current expenditures β = -0.06336 (p = 0.1414). The results show that educational expenditures, especially capital investments in educational infrastructure, make the greatest contribution to Nigeria's economic growth. 

экономикаэкономический ростздравоохранениеобразованиеэкономика образованиягосударственные расходычеловеческий капиталгосударственная стратегияНигерияEconomyEconomic GrowthHealthcareEducationEconomics of EducationGovernment SpendingHuman CapitalPublic StrategyNigeriaReferencesAbdelgany, M., & Saleh, A. (2022). Human capital and labour productivity: Empirical evidence from developing countries. International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences, 10(4), 173–184. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijefm.20221004.13Abdelgany, M., & Saleh, A. (2022). Human capital and labour productivity: Empirical evidence from developing countries. International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences, 10(4), 173–184. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijefm.20221004.13Acemoglu, D., Gallego, F. A., & Robinson, J. A. (2014). Institutions, human capital, and development. Annual Review of Economics, 6(1), 875–912. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-080213-041119Acemoglu, D., Gallego, F. A., & Robinson, J. A. (2014). Institutions, human capital, and development. Annual Review of Economics, 6(1), 875–912. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-080213-041119Adamu, P. O. (2021). Human resources, high-level manpower and the development of the Nigerian economy. Nigerian Economic Society.Adamu, P. O. (2021). Human resources, high-level manpower and the development of the Nigerian economy. Nigerian Economic Society.Adedeji, S. O., & Bamidele, R. O. (2003). Economic impact of tertiary education on human capital development in Nigeria. In Human resource development in Africa: Selected papers for the 2002 annual conference Nigerian Economic Society.Adedeji, S. O., & Bamidele, R. O. (2003). Economic impact of tertiary education on human capital development in Nigeria. In Human resource development in Africa: Selected papers for the 2002 annual conference Nigerian Economic Society.Adelakun, O. J. (2011). Human capital development and economic growth in Nigeria. European Journal of Business and Management, 3(9), 29–38.Adelakun, O. J. (2011). Human capital development and economic growth in Nigeria. European Journal of Business and Management, 3(9), 29–38.Agbai, E., Okafor, A., & Egbedoyin, F. S. (2021). Comparative study of education funding in Nigeria. Journal of Education and Practice, 12(5), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.7176/JEP/12-5-01Agbai, E., Okafor, A., & Egbedoyin, F. S. (2021). Comparative study of education funding in Nigeria. Journal of Education and Practice, 12(5), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.7176/JEP/12-5-01Alayande, B. A., Olayiwola, K. W., & Olaniyan, O. (2001). Nutrition and productivity of women: Evidence from Nigeria. African Economic Research Consortium (AERC).Alayande, B. A., Olayiwola, K. W., & Olaniyan, O. (2001). Nutrition and productivity of women: Evidence from Nigeria. African Economic Research Consortium (AERC).Alenoghena, I. O., Isah, E. C., & Isara, A. R. (2016). Availability and type of human resource for health in public primary health care facilities in selected communities, Edo State. Journal of Community Medicine and Primary Health Care, 28(2), 11–18.Alenoghena, I. O., Isah, E. C., & Isara, A. R. (2016). Availability and type of human resource for health in public primary health care facilities in selected communities, Edo State. Journal of Community Medicine and Primary Health Care, 28(2), 11–18.Bellew, R., & King, E. M. (1991). Promoting girls’ and women’s education (Policy Research and External Affairs Working Paper No. 715). World Bank.Bellew, R., & King, E. M. (1991). Promoting girls’ and women’s education (Policy Research and External Affairs Working Paper No. 715). World Bank.Chaabouni, S., & Mbarek, M. B. (2024). What will be the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on human capital and economic growth? Evidence from the Eurozone. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 15(1), 2482–2498. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-023-01328-3Chaabouni, S., & Mbarek, M. B. (2024). What will be the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on human capital and economic growth? Evidence from the Eurozone. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 15(1), 2482–2498. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-023-01328-3Chete, L. N., & Adeoye, B. W. (2019). Human capital and economic growth: The Nigerian experience. In Human resource development in Africa: Selected papers for the 2018 annual conference of the Nigerian Economic Society (pp. 79–102). Nigerian Economic Society.Chete, L. N., & Adeoye, B. W. (2019). Human capital and economic growth: The Nigerian experience. In Human resource development in Africa: Selected papers for the 2018 annual conference of the Nigerian Economic Society (pp. 79–102). Nigerian Economic Society.Dahmani, M., & Mabrouki, M. (2025). Human capital, innovation, governance and economic growth in resource-rich and resource-poor MENA countries: New evidence from the CS-ARDL approach. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 16(5), 16152–16186. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-024-02408-8Dahmani, M., & Mabrouki, M. (2025). Human capital, innovation, governance and economic growth in resource-rich and resource-poor MENA countries: New evidence from the CS-ARDL approach. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 16(5), 16152–16186. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-024-02408-8Duan, C., Zhou, Y., Cai, Y., Gong, W., Zhao, C., & Ai, J. (2022). Investigate the impact of human capital, economic freedom and governance performance on the economic growth of the BRICS. Journal of Enterprise Information Management, 35(4–5), 1323–1347. https://doi.org/10.1108/JEIM-04-2021-0179Duan, C., Zhou, Y., Cai, Y., Gong, W., Zhao, C., & Ai, J. (2022). Investigate the impact of human capital, economic freedom and governance performance on the economic growth of the BRICS. Journal of Enterprise Information Management, 35(4–5), 1323–1347. https://doi.org/10.1108/JEIM-04-2021-0179Etete, U. B. (2026). Reimagining education in Nigeria: A curriculum-based approach to reducing out-ofschool children. Rivers State University Educational Foundations Journal, 1(1), 230–240.Etete, U. B. (2026). Reimagining education in Nigeria: A curriculum-based approach to reducing out-ofschool children. Rivers State University Educational Foundations Journal, 1(1), 230–240.Fofana, N. Z. F. (2001). Employment and economic growth in the Côte d’Ivoire: An analysis of structural determinants. African Development Review, 13(1), 98–113. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.00032Fofana, N. Z. F. (2001). Employment and economic growth in the Côte d’Ivoire: An analysis of structural determinants. African Development Review, 13(1), 98–113. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.00032Fukao, K., Makino, T., & Settsu, T. (2021). Human capital and economic growth in Japan: 1885–2015. Journal of Economic Surveys, 35(3), 710–740. https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12419Fukao, K., Makino, T., & Settsu, T. (2021). Human capital and economic growth in Japan: 1885–2015. Journal of Economic Surveys, 35(3), 710–740. https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12419Henderson, V., Storeygard, A., & Weil, D. N. (2011). A bright idea for measuring economic growth. American Economic Review, 101(3), 194–199. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.101.3.194Henderson, V., Storeygard, A., & Weil, D. N. (2011). A bright idea for measuring economic growth. American Economic Review, 101(3), 194–199. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.101.3.194Jemiluyi, O. O., & Jeke, L. (2024). The role of human capital development in the urbanization–economic growth nexus: A new insight on Nigeria. Sustainable Futures, 8, 100266. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sftr.2024.100266Jemiluyi, O. O., & Jeke, L. (2024). The role of human capital development in the urbanization–economic growth nexus: A new insight on Nigeria. Sustainable Futures, 8, 100266. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sftr.2024.100266Kraay, A. (2019). The World Bank human capital index: A guide. The World Bank Research Observer, 34(1), 1–33. https://doi.org/10.1093/wbro/lkz001Kraay, A. (2019). The World Bank human capital index: A guide. The World Bank Research Observer, 34(1), 1–33. https://doi.org/10.1093/wbro/lkz001Kripfganz, S., & Schneider, D. C. (2023). ardl: Estimating autoregressive distributed lag and equilibrium correction models. The Stata Journal, 23(4), 983–1019. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X231212434Kripfganz, S., & Schneider, D. C. (2023). ardl: Estimating autoregressive distributed lag and equilibrium correction models. The Stata Journal, 23(4), 983–1019. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X231212434Manuelli, R. E., & Seshadri, A. (2014). Human capital and the wealth of nations. American Economic Review, 104(9), 2736–2762. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.104.9.2736Manuelli, R. E., & Seshadri, A. (2014). Human capital and the wealth of nations. American Economic Review, 104(9), 2736–2762. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.104.9.2736Martin, C. (2023). Skill-building or unskilled labour for female youth: A Bauchi case. In Female and male in West Africa (pp. 223–235). Routledge.Martin, C. (2023). Skill-building or unskilled labour for female youth: A Bauchi case. In Female and male in West Africa (pp. 223–235). Routledge.Matousek, R., & Tzeremes, N. G. (2021). The asymmetric impact of human capital on economic growth. Empirical Economics, 60(3), 1309–1334. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-019-01789-zMatousek, R., & Tzeremes, N. G. (2021). The asymmetric impact of human capital on economic growth. Empirical Economics, 60(3), 1309–1334. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-019-01789-zMincer, J. (1958). Investment in human capital and personal income distribution. Journal of Political Economy, 66(4), 281–302. https://doi.org/10.1086/258055Mincer, J. (1958). Investment in human capital and personal income distribution. Journal of Political Economy, 66(4), 281–302. https://doi.org/10.1086/258055Odusola, A. F. (2021). Human capital investment and the empirics of economic growth in Nigeria. In Rekindling investment for economic development in Nigeria: Selected papers for the annual conference of the Nigerian Economic Society. Nigerian Economic Society.Odusola, A. F. (2021). Human capital investment and the empirics of economic growth in Nigeria. In Rekindling investment for economic development in Nigeria: Selected papers for the annual conference of the Nigerian Economic Society. Nigerian Economic Society.Ogbu, E. (2019). Migration and the philosophy of brain drain in Nigeria. Journal of African Studies and Sustainable Development, 2(4), 44–60.Ogbu, E. (2019). Migration and the philosophy of brain drain in Nigeria. Journal of African Studies and Sustainable Development, 2(4), 44–60.Opoku, E., Poku, K., & Domeher, D. (2024). Financial inclusion, human capital development and economic growth in Africa: An examination of the transmission channel. SAGE Open, 14(3), 21582440241271285. https://doi.org/10.1177/21582440241271285Opoku, E., Poku, K., & Domeher, D. (2024). Financial inclusion, human capital development and economic growth in Africa: An examination of the transmission channel. SAGE Open, 14(3), 21582440241271285. https://doi.org/10.1177/21582440241271285Orlando, G., Sportelli, M., & Rossa, F. D. (2021). The Harrod model. In Nonlinearities in economics: An interdisciplinary approach to economic dynamics, growth and cycles (pp. 177–189). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-70982-2_13Orlando, G., Sportelli, M., & Rossa, F. D. (2021). The Harrod model. In Nonlinearities in economics: An interdisciplinary approach to economic dynamics, growth and cycles (pp. 177–189). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-70982-2_13Paudel, R. C. (2023). Capital expenditure and economic growth: A disaggregated analysis for Nepal. Cogent Economics & Finance, 11(1), 2191449. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2023.2191449Paudel, R. C. (2023). Capital expenditure and economic growth: A disaggregated analysis for Nepal. Cogent Economics & Finance, 11(1), 2191449. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2023.2191449Qamruzzaman, M., Jianguo, W., Jahan, S., & Yingjun, Z. (2021). Financial innovation, human capital development, and economic growth of selected South Asian countries: An application of the ARDL approach. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 26(3), 4032– 4053. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2003Qamruzzaman, M., Jianguo, W., Jahan, S., & Yingjun, Z. (2021). Financial innovation, human capital development, and economic growth of selected South Asian countries: An application of the ARDL approach. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 26(3), 4032– 4053. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2003Rajab, B., & Zouheir, A. (2024). Complementarity relationship between foreign direct investment, human capital threshold and economic growth: State of the 15 least developed African countries. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 15(2), 7216–7236. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-023-01314-9Rajab, B., & Zouheir, A. (2024). Complementarity relationship between foreign direct investment, human capital threshold and economic growth: State of the 15 least developed African countries. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 15(2), 7216–7236. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-023-01314-9Romer, P. M. (1994). The origins of endogenous growth. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 8(1), 3–22. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.8.1.3Romer, P. M. (1994). The origins of endogenous growth. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 8(1), 3–22. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.8.1.3Sarwar, A., Khan, M. A., Sarwar, Z., & Khan, W. (2021). Financial development, human capital and its impact on economic growth of emerging countries. Asian Journal of Economics and Banking, 5(1), 86–100. https://doi.org/10.1108/AJEB-06-2020-0015Sarwar, A., Khan, M. A., Sarwar, Z., & Khan, W. (2021). Financial development, human capital and its impact on economic growth of emerging countries. Asian Journal of Economics and Banking, 5(1), 86–100. https://doi.org/10.1108/AJEB-06-2020-0015Son, H. H. (2010). Human capital development. Asian Development Review, 27(2), 29–56. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0116110510500083Son, H. H. (2010). Human capital development. Asian Development Review, 27(2), 29–56. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0116110510500083Suparman, S., & Muzakir, M. (2023). Regional inequality, human capital, unemployment, and economic growth in Indonesia: Panel regression approach. Cogent Economics & Finance, 11(2), 2251803. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2023.2251803Suparman, S., & Muzakir, M. (2023). Regional inequality, human capital, unemployment, and economic growth in Indonesia: Panel regression approach. Cogent Economics & Finance, 11(2), 2251803. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2023.2251803Sultana, T., Dey, S. R., & Tareque, M. (2022). Exploring the linkage between human capital and economic growth: A look at 141 developing and developed countries. Economic Systems, 46(3), 101017. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2022.101017Sultana, T., Dey, S. R., & Tareque, M. (2022). Exploring the linkage between human capital and economic growth: A look at 141 developing and developed countries. Economic Systems, 46(3), 101017. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2022.101017Wirajing, M. A. K., Nchofoung, T. N., & Etape, F. M. (2023). Revisiting the human capital–economic growth nexus in Africa. SN Business & Economics, 3(7), 115. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43546-023-00494-5Wirajing, M. A. K., Nchofoung, T. N., & Etape, F. M. (2023). Revisiting the human capital–economic growth nexus in Africa. SN Business & Economics, 3(7), 115. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43546-023-00494-5Yang, X. (2020). Health expenditure, human capital, and economic growth: An empirical study of developing countries. International Journal of Health Economics and Management, 20(2), 163–176. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10754-019-09275-wYang, X. (2020). Health expenditure, human capital, and economic growth: An empirical study of developing countries. International Journal of Health Economics and Management, 20(2), 163–176. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10754-019-09275-wYormirzoev, M. (2023). Human capital and economic growth in Central Asia. Post-Communist Economies, 35(6), 533–545. https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2023.2196872Yormirzoev, M. (2023). Human capital and economic growth in Central Asia. Post-Communist Economies, 35(6), 533–545. https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2023.2196872Zhang, Y., Kumar, S., Huang, X., & Yuan, Y. (2023). Human capital quality and regional economic growth: Evidence from China. Journal of Asian Economics, 86, 101593. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2023.101593Zhang, Y., Kumar, S., Huang, X., & Yuan, Y. (2023). Human capital quality and regional economic growth: Evidence from China. Journal of Asian Economics, 86, 101593. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2023.101593

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.