espEconomy: strategy and practiceEconomy: strategy and practice1997-99672663-550XИнститут экономики10.51176/1997-9967-2026-1-65-78esp-1839Research ArticleМЕНЕДЖМЕНТ И МАРКЕТИНГMANAGEMENT AND MARKETINGПроектный подход к управлению проблемными ипотечными кредитами: сравнительный анализ Европы и АзииA Project-Based Approach to Managing Non-Performing Mortgage Loans: Evidence from Europe and Asiahttps://orcid.org/0009-0003-8955-7840МухамедовЖ. Ш.MukhamedovJ. S.

Мухамедов Ж.Ш. – PhD докторант

про. Аль-Фараби 71, Алматы

Javokhir S. Mukhamedov – PhD candidate

Almaty

javokhir.mukhamedov@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-4825-1189СокираТ. С.SokiraT. S.

Сокира Т.С. – к.э.н., доцент

про. Аль-Фараби 71, Алматы

Tatyana S. Sokira – Cand. Sc. (Econ.), Associate Professor

Almaty

t_sokira@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6367-2192КулдашеваЗ.KuldashevaZ.

Кулдашева З. – д.э.н., доцент

ул. Ислама Каримова 49, Ташкент

Zebo Kuldasheva – Doc. Sc. (Econ.), Associate Professor

Tashkent

z.kuldasheva@tsue.uzКазахский национальный университет им. аль-ФарабиКазахстанAl‑Farabi Kazakh National UniversityKazakhstanТашкентский государственный экономический университетУзбекистанTashkent State University of EconomicsUzbekistan2026050420262116578Copyright © Мухамедов Ж.Ш., Сокира Т.С., Кулдашева З., 20262026Мухамедов Ж.Ш., Сокира Т.С., Кулдашева З.Mukhamedov J.S., Sokira T.S., Kuldasheva Z.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://esp.ieconom.kz/jour/article/view/1839

В условиях усиления макроэкономической нестабильности и роста кредитных рисков особую актуальность приобретает анализ факторов формирования проблемных ипотечных кредитов в банковской системе. Данное исследование направлено на разработку и предложение концептуальной проектной модели управления проблемной задолженностью (NPL), которая рассматривает управление проблемными ипотечными кредитами как интегрированный проектный цикл. Методологическую основу исследования составляют методы описательной статистики, корреляционного анализа и множественного регрессионного моделирования. Эмпирическую базу исследования составляют данные, собранные из Бюро национальной статистики и Национального банка Республики Казахстан за период 2020–2024 гг., включая показатели доходов населения, валового внутреннего продукта, уровня инфляции, процентных ставок, объема депозитов и просроченной задолженности. Результаты анализа показывают, что средний уровень проблемных кредитов в Европейском союзе снизился с 2,6% в 2020 г. до 1,9% в 2024 г., что отражает повышение эффективности систем управления кредитным риском. В странах Центральной Азии уровень проблемных кредитов в Казахстане сократился с 6,9% в 2020 г. до 3,1% в 2024 г., что свидетельствует о частичном улучшении качества кредитного портфеля, однако сохраняется чувствительность к росту ипотечного кредитования. Перспективы дальнейших исследований включают эмпирическую проверку модели на основе кейс-исследований банков развивающихся рынков, количественную оценку ее влияния на показатели кредитного портфеля, а также адаптацию подхода к другим сегментам кредитования, не связанным с ипотекой. 

In the context of increasing macroeconomic instability and increasing credit risks, the analysis of the factors of formation of problem mortgage loans in the banking system is becoming particularly relevant. This study aims to develop and propose a conceptual project-based framework, the NPL Project Approach that conceptualizes the management of non-performing mortgage loans as an integrated project cycle. The methodological basis of the research consists of methods of descriptive statistics, correlation analysis and multiple regression modeling. The empirical basis of the study consists of data collected from the Bureau of National Statistics and the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan for the period 2020-2024, including indicators of household income, gross domestic product, inflation, interest rates, deposits and overdue debt. The analysis results show that the average level of problem loans in the European Union decreased from 2.6% in 2020 to 1.9% in 2024, reflecting an increase in the effectiveness of credit risk management systems. In Central Asian countries, the level of problem loans in Kazakhstan decreased from 6.9% in 2020 to 3.1% in 2024, indicating a partial improvement in the quality of the loan portfolio, but sensitivity to the growth of mortgage lending remains. The prospects for further research include empirical verification of the model based on case studies of emerging market banks, quantification of its impact on loan portfolio performance, as well as adaptation of the approach to other non-mortgage lending segments.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.