espEconomy: strategy and practiceEconomy: strategy and practice1997-99672663-550XИнститут экономикиesp-200Research ArticleСтатьиВлияние Евразийского экономического союза на торговлю Казахстана: оценка воздействия с использованием метода синтетического контроляThe effect of Eurasian Economic Union on trade of Kazakhstan: impact evaluation using the Synthetic Control Methodhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1490-302XМухамедиевБ. М.MukhamediyevB. M.bmukhamediyev@mail.ru.https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3205-0948ТемербулатоваЖ. С.TemerbulatovaZ. S.t.zhansaya.s@mail.ru.ИляшоваГ. К.IlyashovaG. K.guliya_ilyashova@mail.ruКазахский Национальный Университет им. Аль-ФарабиКазахстанAl-Farabi Kazakh National UniversityKazakhstan2020300620201525564Copyright © Мухамедиев Б.М., Темербулатова Ж.С., Иляшова Г.К., 20202020Мухамедиев Б.М., Темербулатова Ж.С., Иляшова Г.К.Mukhamediyev B.M., Temerbulatova Z.S., Ilyashova G.K.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://esp.ieconom.kz/jour/article/view/200

В рамках интеграционных процессов торговая политика стран существенно влияет на конкурентоспособность как отдельной страны, так и всей интеграционной ассоциации. В статье проведена оценка влияния Евразийского экономического союза на двустороннюю торговлю между Казахстаном и другими странами - членами интеграционного блока. Целью исследования является анализ торговых выгод для Казахстана после вступления в ЕАЭС. Был использован метод синтетического контроля. Метод нацелен на оценку последствий воздействия с использованием небольшого числа случаев в качестве примера моделирования их количественных показателей в гипотетической ситуации, когда воздействия не было. Для моделирования были собраны данные Казахстана и 40 стран-доноров за 1995-2018 гг. На основании этих данных была построена синтетическая контрфактическая единица, которая больше всего схожа с характеристиками Казахстана. В результате исследования было установлено, что двусторонние торговые потоки Казахстана со странами ЕАЭС в 2018 г. были бы на 18,5% меньше, если бы Казахстан не присоединился бы к ЕАЭС. Также по аналогичной методике, была проведена оценка двусторонней торговли Казахстана с каждой страной ЕАЭС по отдельности.

Within the framework of integration processes, the trade policies of countries significantly affect the competitiveness of both a single country and the entire integration association. The article provides the evaluation of impact of the Eurasian Economic Union on bilateral trade between Kazakhstan and other member countries of the integration bloc. The aim of the study is to analyze the trade benefits for Kazakhstan after joining the EAEU. The synthetic control method was used. The method is aimed at assessing the effects of the impact using a small number of cases as an example of modeling their quantitative indicators in a hypothetical situation where there was no impact. For modeling data from Kazakhstan and 40 donor pool countries for 1995-2018 were collected. Based on the data, a synthetic counterfactual unit, which best resembles the characteristics of the Kazakhstan, was constructed. As a result of the study, it was determined that bilateral trade flows of Kazakhstan with the EAEU countries in 2018 would have been 18.5 less if Kazakhstan had not joined the EAEU. Also, according to a similar method, an assessment of bilateral trade of Kazakhstan with each EAEU country was carried out separately.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.