espEconomy: strategy and practiceEconomy: strategy and practice1997-99672663-550XИнститут экономики10.51176/1997-9967-2026-2-23-39esp-2048Research ArticleЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЙ РОСТ И УСТОЙЧИВОЕ РАЗВИТИЕECONOMIC GROWTH AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENTОценка рисков углеродного перехода в промышленной экономике КазахстанаAssessment of Carbon Transition Risks in Kazakhstan’s Industrial Economyhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5872-0201ХуанышЛ.KhuanyshL.

Хуаныш Л. – PhD докторант

Астана

Lena Khuanysh – PhD student

Astana

lenahuanys@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2905-5123ДаулетхановаЖ. Д.DauletkhanovaZh.

Даулетханова Ж.Д. – доктор по профилю финансы

Астана

Zhanar Dauletkhanova – Doctor by Profile in Finance

Astana

dauletkhanovazhanar@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9260-8632МизамбековаЖ. К.MizambekovaZh.

Мизамбекова Ж. К. – к.э.н., доцент

Астана

Zhamilya Mizambekova – Cand. Sc. (Econ.), Associate Professor

Astana

zhamilya1952@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3624-0765БайкеноваД. Х.BaikenovaD.

Байкенова Д. Х. – магистр экономических наук, старший преподаватель

Караганда

Dana Baikenova – Master of Economic Sciences, Senior Lecturer

Karaganda

danabaik1973@gmail.comEsil UniversityКазахстанEsil UniversityKazakhstanУниверситет Turan-AstanaКазахстанTuran-Astana UniversityKazakhstanКарагандинский Технический Университет им. Абылкаса СагиноваКазахстанAbylkas Saginov Karaganda Technical UniversityKazakhstan2026180720262122339Copyright © Хуаныш Л., Даулетханова Ж.Д., Мизамбекова Ж.К., Байкенова Д.Х., 20262026Хуаныш Л., Даулетханова Ж.Д., Мизамбекова Ж.К., Байкенова Д.Х.Khuanysh L., Dauletkhanova Z., Mizambekova Z., Baikenova D.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://esp.ieconom.kz/jour/article/view/2048

Переход к низкоуглеродной экономике усиливает давление на промышленные компании, особенно в ресурсозависимых странах, где значительная часть производства, экспорта и инвестиций связана с углеродоемкими секторами. Цель статьи заключается в оценке рисков углеродного перехода в промышленной экономике Казахстана и определить основные факторы, влияющие на уровень углеродного риска предприятий. Методологическая основа исследования включает расчет композитного индекса углеродного риска (CRI), корреляционный анализ, панельную регрессию с фиксированными эффектами, а также построение матрицы рисков и возможностей углеродного перехода. Эмпирическая база исследования охватывает период 2011–2025 гг. и включает данные Бюро национальной статистики РК, Министерства энергетики РК, отчетов международных организаций, а также годовые и ESG-отчеты 12 крупных промышленных компаний Казахстана. Результаты показывают, что за 2011–2025 гг. индекс CRI снизился с 0,72 до 0,53, а углеродоемкость промышленности сократилась на 18,4%. Панельная регрессия показала, что основными факторами углеродного риска являются углеродоемкость производства (β=0,614; p<0,001), устаревшее оборудование (β=0,441; p<0,01) и зеленое финансирование (β=–0,383; p<0,01). Модель объясняет 71,2% внутрефирменной вариации CRI. Наибольшее снижение риска отмечено в электроэнергетике (-31,8%), наименьшее в горнодобывающем секторе (-8,8%).Полученные результаты подтверждают необходимость технологической модернизации, расширения зеленого финансирования и разработки отраслевых механизмов управления рисками углеродного перехода.

The transition to a low-carbon economy is increasing pressure on industrial companies, especially in resource-dependent countries where a significant share of production, exports, and investment is tied to carbon-intensive sectors. The purpose of the article is to assess the risks of the carbon transition in Kazakhstan's industrial economy and to identify the main factors influencing enterprises' carbon risk levels. The methodological basis of the study includes the calculation of the composite carbon risk index (CRI), correlation analysis, panel regression with fixed effects, and the construction of a matrix of carbon transition risks and opportunities. The empirical base of the study covers the period 2011-2025 and includes data from the Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Kazakhstan, reports from international organizations, as well as annual and ESG reports from 12 large industrial companies in Kazakhstan. The results show that for 2011-2025. The CRI index decreased from 0.72 to 0.53, and the industry's carbon intensity decreased by 18.4%. Panel regression showed that the main factors of carbon risk are carbon intensity of production (β=0.614; p<0.001), outdated equipment (β=0.441; p<0.01), and green financing (β=-0.383; p<0.01). The model explains 71.2% of the intra-company variation in CRI. The greatest reduction in risk was noted in the electric power industry (-31.8%), the lowest in the mining sector (-8.8%). The results confirm the need for technological modernization, expansion of green financing, and the development of industry-specific mechanisms to manage carbon transition risks.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.