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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">esp</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Economy: strategy and practice</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Economy: strategy and practice</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1997-9967</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2663-550X</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Институт экономики</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.51176/1997-9967-2026-2-101-116</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">esp-2053</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>РЕГИОНАЛЬНАЯ ЭКОНОМИКА</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>REGIONAL ECONOMY</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Миграционная привлекательность Казахстана: роль реальных доходов и региональных различий</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Migration Attractiveness of Kazakhstan: The Role of Real Income and Regional Disparities</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0533-2728</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Калиева</surname><given-names>С.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Kaliyeva</surname><given-names>S.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Калиева С.А. – д.э.н., главный научный сотрудник</p><p>ул. Шевченко 28, Алматы</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Saule A. Kaliyeva – Doc. Sc. (Econ.), Chief Researcher</p><p>28 Shevchenko St., Almaty</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">kalievas_@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4724-2977</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Садыков</surname><given-names>И.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Sadykovа</surname><given-names>I.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Садыков И.М. – PhD, научный сотрудник</p><p>ул. Шевченко 28, Алматы</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Ilyas M. Sadykov – PhD, Researcher</p><p>28 Shevchenko St., Almaty</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">ilyas.sadykov.1989@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9291-6144</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Турдалина</surname><given-names>Ш.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Turdalina</surname><given-names>S.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Турдалина Ш.К. – научный сотрудник</p><p>ул. Шевченко 28, Алматы</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Sharbanu K. Turdalina – Researcher</p><p>28 Shevchenko St., Almaty</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">shtur-dalina@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0009-0009-2476-2660</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Сейсенбаева</surname><given-names>С.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Seisenbayeva</surname><given-names>S.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Сейсенбаева С.Р. – PhD докторант</p><p>ул. Шевченко 28, Алматы</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Saule R. Seisenbayeva – PhD student</p><p>71 Al-Farabi Ave., Almaty</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">saramatal@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Институт экономики КН МНВО РК</institution><country>Казахстан</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Institute of Economics CS MSHE RK</institution><country>Kazakhstan</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Казахский национальный университет им. аль-Фараби</institution><country>Казахстан</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>al-Farabi Kazakh National University</institution><country>Kazakhstan</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2026</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>18</day><month>07</month><year>2026</year></pub-date><volume>21</volume><issue>2</issue><fpage>101</fpage><lpage>116</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Калиева С., Садыков И., Турдалина Ш., Сейсенбаева С., 2026</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2026</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Калиева С., Садыков И., Турдалина Ш., Сейсенбаева С.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Kaliyeva S., Sadykovа I., Turdalina S., Seisenbayeva S.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://esp.ieconom.kz/jour/article/view/2053">https://esp.ieconom.kz/jour/article/view/2053</self-uri><abstract><p>Миграция является важным фактором социально-экономического развития, оказывающим влияние на рынки труда, демографическую структуру, человеческий капитал и региональное развитие. Цель данного исследования заключается в анализе динамики и пространственных различий внешней миграции в Казахстане за 2001–2024 годы, а также в оценке роли социально-экономических факторов, в частности реальных доходов населения, в формировании миграционных притоков. В исследовании применяются сравнительный межстрановой анализ, региональный пространственно-временной анализ, корреляционный анализ Пирсона, OLS-регрессия со стандартными ошибками Ньюи–Уэста, тест Дики–Фуллера, коинтеграционный анализ на основе остатков и модель первых разностей. Результаты показывают, что наибольшие положительные значения миграционного сальдо были зафиксированы в городе Алматы, Алматинской области, Мангистауской области и городе Астана, тогда как отрицательные значения сохранялись в Северо-Казахстанской, Восточно-Казахстанской, Карагандинской, Абайской, Жамбылской и Улытауской областях. Корреляционный анализ выявил сильные положительные связи между миграцией и ВВП (r = 0.92), инвестициями (r = 0.91), объёмом строительства (r = 0.90) и реальными доходами населения (r = 0.89), тогда как уровень бедности показал отрицательную корреляцию (r = -0.81). Результаты OLS-регрессии показали статистически значимую положительную связь между реальными доходами и миграционными притоками. Однако коинтеграционный тест не подтвердил наличие устойчивой долгосрочной связи (p = 0.144), а модель первых разностей не выявила статистически значимой краткосрочной связи (p = 0.3454). Полученные результаты показывают, что миграционные процессы в Казахстане связаны с уровнем доходов населения, но одновременно зависят от более широкого набора факторов, включая состояние рынка труда, региональные различия, инфраструктуру и институциональные условия.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>Migration is an important factor of socio-economic development, influencing labor markets, demographic structure, human capital, and regional development. This study aims to analyze the dynamics and spatial disparities of external migration in Kazakhstan for 2001–2024 and to assess the role of socio-economic factors, particularly real household income, in shaping migration inflows. The study applies comparative cross-country analysis, regional spatio-temporal analysis, Pearson correlation analysis, OLS regression with Newey–West standard errors, the Augmented Dickey–Fuller test, residual-based cointegration analysis, and a first-difference model. The results show that the highest positive migration balances were recorded in Almaty city, Almaty region, Mangystau region, and Astana city, while negative values remained in North Kazakhstan, East Kazakhstan, Karaganda, Abay, Zhambyl, and Ulytau regions. Correlation analysis revealed strong positive associations between migration and GDP (r = 0.92), investment (r = 0.91), construction volume (r = 0.90), and real household income (r = 0.89), while poverty showed a negative correlation (r = -0.81). The results of the OLS regression showed a statistically significant positive relationship between real incomes and migration inflows. However, the cointegration test did not confirm a stable long-term relationship (p = 0.144), and the first-differences model did not reveal a statistically significant short-term relationship (p = 0.3454). The results show that migration processes in Kazakhstan are related to the income level of the population, but at the same time depend on a broader set of factors, including the state of the labor market, regional differences, infrastructure and institutional conditions.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>миграция</kwd><kwd>внешняя миграция</kwd><kwd>миграционная стратегия</kwd><kwd>человеческий капитал</kwd><kwd>мобильность населения</kwd><kwd>региональная экономика</kwd><kwd>региональное развитие</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>Migration</kwd><kwd>External Migration</kwd><kwd>Migration Strategy</kwd><kwd>Human Capital</kwd><kwd>Population Mobility</kwd><kwd>Regional Economy</kwd><kwd>Regional Development</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><funding-statement xml:lang="ru">статья выполнена при поддержке Комитета науки МНВО РК в рамках грантового финансирования ИРН AP23488981 «Трансформация трудовых ресурсов Казахстана на фоне технологических вызовов: новое качество, модель, сценарии».</funding-statement><funding-statement xml:lang="en">this study was supported by the Science Committee MSHE RK within the framework of grant funding AP23488981 “Transformation of Kazakhstan’s labor resources against the background of technological challenges: new quality, model, scenarios”.</funding-statement></funding-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Aldashev,A., &amp; Dietz, B. 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