espEconomy: strategy and practiceEconomy: strategy and practice1997-99672663-550XИнститут экономики1997-9967-2026-3-22-38esp-2194Research ArticleЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЙ РОСТ И УСТОЙЧИВОЕ РАЗВИТИЕECONOMIC GROWTH AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENTЭкономические факторы развития молочного сектора Казахстана: эконометрический анализEconomic Factors in the Development of Kazakhstan’s Dairy Sector: An Econometric Analysishttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9955-9282ДомалатовЕ. Б.DomalatovY. B.

Домалатов Е.Б. – PhD докторант,

Усть-Каменогорск

Yerzhan B. Domalatov – PhD Candidate, Senior Lecturer

Ust-Kamenogorsk 

domalatovkz@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3460-8634АхметоваЛ. М.AkhmetovaL. M.

Ахметова Л.М. – PhD докторант

Усть-Каменогорск

Lyailya M. Akhmetova – PhD Candidate

Ust-Kamenogorsk 

lyailya.akh@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3414-2213БайгужиноваА. Ж.BaiguzhinovaA. Zh.

Байгужинова А.Ж. – PhD докторан

Усть-Каменогорск

Alma Zh. Baiguzhinova – PhD Candidate

Ust-Kamenogorsk 

alma.baiguzhinova456@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-0798-1078АпышеваА. А.ApyshevaA. A.

Апышева А.А. – к.э.н., ассоциированный профессор 

Усть-Каменогорск 

Assel A. Apysheva – Cand. Sc. (Econ.), Associate Professor

Ust-Kamenogorsk 

asel_gan@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6241-0932ДубинаИ. Н.DubinaI. N.

Дубина И.Н. – д.э.н., профессор

Барнаул  

Igor N. Dubina – Doc. Sc. (Econ.), Professor

Barnaul 

dubina@mail.asu.ruВосточно-Казахстанский университет им. С.АманжоловаКазахстанSarsen Amanzholov East Kazakhstan UniversityKazakhstanАлтайский государственный университетРоссияAltai State UniversityRussian Federation2026161020262132238Copyright © Домалатов Е.Б., Ахметова Л.М., Байгужинова А.Ж., Апышева А.А., Дубина И.Н., 20262026Домалатов Е.Б., Ахметова Л.М., Байгужинова А.Ж., Апышева А.А., Дубина И.Н.Domalatov Y.B., Akhmetova L.M., Baiguzhinova A.Z., Apysheva A.A., Dubina I.N.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://esp.ieconom.kz/jour/article/view/2194

Молочный сектор играет важную роль в обеспечении продовольственной безопасности Казахстана, однако его развитие характеризуется структурными диспропорциями, ограниченной технологической модернизацией и высокой зависимостью от производственных и инвестиционных факторов. Цель исследования оценить взаимосвязь инвестиционных, ценовых и производственных факторов с динамикой производства молока в Казахстане за 2004–2024 гг. с учетом лаговых эффектов и структурного разрыва официальной статистики начиная с 2022 г. Информационную базу составили ежегодные данные Продовольственной и сельскохозяйственной организации ООН и Бюро национальной статистики Республики Казахстан за 2004–2024 гг. Применены описательная статистика, корреляционный анализ Пирсона, тесты ADF и KPSS, множественная регрессия методом наименьших квадратов, диагностика мультиколлинеарности и анализ альтернативных спецификаций. Результаты показали, что предпочтительная модель объясняет 95,3% вариации объема производства молока. Наиболее значимая положительная связь установлена для реальных инвестиций в сельское хозяйство (β = 0,461; p = 0,002) и средней молочной продуктивности коров (β = 0,305; p = 0,018). Индекс цен производителей не продемонстрировал статистически значимой связи с объемом производства (β = 0,021; p = 0,836). Учет пересмотра официальной статистики за 2022–2024 гг. существенно повысил объясняющую способность модели. Полученные результаты показывают, что основными факторами развития молочного сектора Казахстана выступают инвестиции и повышение продуктивности, тогда как ценовые сигналы без технологической модернизации не обеспечивают устойчивого увеличения производства.

The dairy sector plays an important role in ensuring Kazakhstan’s food security, but its development is characterized by structural imbalances, limited technological modernization, and high dependence on production and investment factors. The aim of the study is to evaluate the relationship of investment, price and production factors with the dynamics of milk production in Kazakhstan in 2004-2024, taking into account lag effects and the structural gap in official statistics starting in 2022. The information base was compiled by the annual data of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and the Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2004-2024. Descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation analysis, ADF and KPSS tests, multiple least squares regression, multicollinearity diagnostics, and alternative specification analysis are applied. The results showed that the preferred model explains 95.3% of the variation in milk production. The most significant positive relationship was found for real investments in agriculture (β = 0.461; p = 0.002) and average dairy productivity of cows (β = 0.305; p = 0.018). The producer price index did not demonstrate a statistically significant relationship with the volume of production (β = 0.021; p = 0.836). Taking into account the revision of official statistics for 2022-2024 has significantly increased the explanatory power of the model. The results show that the main factors in the development of Kazakhstan’s dairy sector are investment and increased productivity, while price signals without technological modernization do not ensure a steady increase in production.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.