espEconomy: strategy and practiceEconomy: strategy and practice1997-99672663-550XИнститут экономики1997-9967-2026-3-54-69esp-2196Research ArticleФИНАНСОВАЯ ЭКОНОМИКАFINANCIAL ECONOMYМакроэкономические факторы инфляции в сырьевой экспортно-ориентированной экономике: на примере КазахстанаMacroeconomic Drivers of Inflation in a CommodityExporting Economy: Evidence from Kazakhstanhttps://orcid.org/0009-0009-2224-1239ЕрмековаЖ. Ж.YermekovaZh. Zh.

Ермекова Ж.Ж. – к.э.н., ассистент-профессор

Алматы 

Zhanna Zh. Yermekova – Cand. Sc. (Econ.), Assistant Professor

Almaty 

zhanna.yermekova@kaznu.edu.kzhttps://orcid.org/0009-0000-8569-5988АлдабергеновН. Ш.AldabergenovN. Sh.

Алдабергенов Н.Ш. – к.э.н., и.о. профессора

Алматы 

Nurlan Sh. Aldabergenov – Cand. Sc. (Econ.), Acting Associate Professor

Almaty 

nauka191162@gmail.comЖапсарбайА.ZhapsarbayA.

Жапсарбай А. – консультант

Манила 

Askhat Zhapsarbay – Consultant

Manila 

askhat138@mail.ruКазахский национальный университет им. альФарабиКазахстанAl-Farabi Kazakh National UniversityKazakhstanАзиатский банк развитияФилиппиныAsian Development BankPhilippines2026161020262135469Copyright © Ермекова Ж.Ж., Алдабергенов Н.Ш., Жапсарбай А., 20262026Ермекова Ж.Ж., Алдабергенов Н.Ш., Жапсарбай А.Yermekova Z.Z., Aldabergenov N.S., Zhapsarbay A.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://esp.ieconom.kz/jour/article/view/2196

Инфляция остается одной из главных макроэкономических проблем для стран с формирующимся рынком, поскольку постоянная нестабильность цен подрывает экономический рост, искажает распределение доходов и снижает эффективность денежно-кредитной политики. Целью данного исследования является оценка взаимосвязи между инфляцией, учетной ставкой, обменным курсом, ценами на нефть и трансфертами в Национальный фонд в Казахстане с использованием годовых данных за 2000-2025 годы и модели авторегрессии с распределенным лагом (ARDL). Исходные данные представляют собой годовые временные ряды за 2000–2025 годы, включающие 26 наблюдений по каждому показателю, сформированные на основе статистики Бюро национальной статистики, Национального банка Казахстана, Всемирного банка и Министерства финансов Республики Казахстан. Использованы описательная статистика, корреляционный анализ, тест Дики–Фуллера, модель авторегрессии с распределёнными лагами ARDL. Коэффициент при валютном курсе с лагом составил −0,0733 (p = 0,0274), а при текущем логарифме цены нефти — 6,9936 (p = 0,0048), тогда как текущие и лаговые коэффициенты процентной ставки и логарифма трансфертов Национального фонда по отдельности статистически незначимы на уровне 5%. Модель характеризуется коэффициентом детерминации R² = 0,6546 и общей статистической значимостью (F = 3,159; p = 0,0239), однако тест границ не подтвердил наличие долгосрочной связи между переменными (F = 2,4282; p = 0,3762). Полученные результаты способствуют более глубокому пониманию факторов инфляции в Казахстане и могут быть использованы при формировании денежно-кредитной и макроэкономической политики.

Inflation remains a central macroeconomic challenge for emerging economies, as persistent price instability undermines economic growth, distorts income distribution, and weakens the effectiveness of monetary policy. This study aims to assess the relationships between inflation, the policy rate, the exchange rate, oil prices, and National Fund transfers in Kazakhstan using annual data for 2000–2025 and an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The initial data consist of annual time series for 2000–2025, including 26 observations for each indicator, compiled from statistics from the Bureau of National Statistics, the National Bank of Kazakhstan, the World Bank, and the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, the Dickey–Fuller test, and the ARDL autoregressive distributed lag model were used. The coefficient for the lagged exchange rate was −0.0733 (p = 0.0274), and for the current logarithm of the oil price, it was 6.9936 (p = 0.0048), while the current and lagged coefficients for the interest rate and the logarithm of National Fund transfers are statistically insignificant at the 5% level. The model is characterized by a determination coefficient of R² = 0.6546 and overall statistical significance (F = 1.159; p = 0.0239), however, the bounds test did not confirm the presence of a long-term relationship between the variables (F = 2.4282; p = 0.3762). These results contribute to a deeper understanding of the factors influencing inflation in Kazakhstan and can inform monetary and macroeconomic policy.

инфляцияпроцентная ставкаставка рефинансированияфискальная стратегияденежно-кредитная политикамакроэкономикаресурсозависимая экономикаInflationInterest RateRefinancing RateFiscal StrategyMonetary PolicyMacroeconomicsResource‑Dependent EconomyReferencesAbu Asab, N. (2025). Are supply shocks a key driver of global inflation? Evidence from CPI and GDP deflator analysis. Research in Globalization, 10, 100279. https:// doi.org/10.1016/j.resglo.2025.100279Abu Asab, N. (2025). Are supply shocks a key driver of global inflation? Evidence from CPI and GDP deflator analysis. Research in Globalization, 10, 100279. https:// doi.org/10.1016/j.resglo.2025.100279Acar, Y., & Orhan, B. (2023). Determinants of inflation in OECD countries after the COVID-19 pandemic. Journal of Economics and Administrative Approaches, 5(1), 53–63. https://doi.org/10.47138/ jeaa.1253704Acar, Y., & Orhan, B. (2023). Determinants of inflation in OECD countries after the COVID-19 pandemic. Journal of Economics and Administrative Approaches, 5(1), 53–63. https://doi.org/10.47138/ jeaa.1253704Akhmedov, E. (2019). The impact of oil price shocks on selected Kazakhstan’s macroeconomic indicators. Journal of International Studies, 12(4), 258–271. https:// doi.org/10.14254/2071-8330.2019/12-4/17Akhmedov, E. (2019). The impact of oil price shocks on selected Kazakhstan’s macroeconomic indicators. Journal of International Studies, 12(4), 258–271. https:// doi.org/10.14254/2071-8330.2019/12-4/17Anderl, C., & Caporale, G. M. (2023). Asymmetries, uncertainty and inflation: Evidence from developed and emerging economies. Journal of Economics and Finance, 47(4), 984–1017. https://doi.org/10.1007/ s12197-023-09639-6Anderl, C., & Caporale, G. M. (2023). Asymmetries, uncertainty and inflation: Evidence from developed and emerging economies. Journal of Economics and Finance, 47(4), 984–1017. https://doi.org/10.1007/ s12197-023-09639-6Atamanchuk, M., Hajdenberg, A., Kadissi, D., Lisi, G., & Rao, N. H. (2025). Drivers of inflation in the Caucasus and Central Asia (IMF Working Paper No. 2025/003). International Monetary Fund. https://doi. org/10.5089/9798400296031.001Atamanchuk, M., Hajdenberg, A., Kadissi, D., Lisi, G., & Rao, N. H. (2025). Drivers of inflation in the Caucasus and Central Asia (IMF Working Paper No. 2025/003). International Monetary Fund. https://doi. org/10.5089/9798400296031.001Bureau of National Statistics. (2025). Official statistical data. Retrieved June 30, 2026 https://stat.gov. kzBureau of National Statistics. (2025). Official statistical data. Retrieved June 30, 2026 https://stat.gov. kzFriedman, M. (1968). The role of monetary policy. The American Economic Review, 58(1), 1–17.Friedman, M. (1968). The role of monetary policy. The American Economic Review, 58(1), 1–17.Friedman, M., & Schwartz, A. J. (1963). A monetary history of the United States, 1867–1960. Princeton University Press.Friedman, M., & Schwartz, A. J. (1963). A monetary history of the United States, 1867–1960. Princeton University Press.Hamilton, J. D. (2003). What is an oil shock? Journal of Econometrics, 113(2), 363–398. https://doi. org/10.1016/S0304-4076(02)00207-5Hamilton, J. D. (2003). What is an oil shock? Journal of Econometrics, 113(2), 363–398. https://doi. org/10.1016/S0304-4076(02)00207-5Hamilton, J. D. (2009). Causes and consequences of the oil shock of 2007–08 (NBER Working Paper No. 15002). National Bureau of Economic Research. https:// doi.org/10.3386/w15002Hamilton, J. D. (2009). Causes and consequences of the oil shock of 2007–08 (NBER Working Paper No. 15002). National Bureau of Economic Research. https:// doi.org/10.3386/w15002Hasanov, F., Mikayilov, J., Bulut, C., Suleymanov, E., & Aliyev, F. (2017). The role of oil prices in exchange rate movements: The CIS oil exporters. Economies, 5(2), Article 13. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies5020013Hasanov, F., Mikayilov, J., Bulut, C., Suleymanov, E., & Aliyev, F. (2017). The role of oil prices in exchange rate movements: The CIS oil exporters. Economies, 5(2), Article 13. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies5020013Hledik, T., Musil, K., Rysanek, J., & Tonner, J. (2018). A macroeconomic forecasting model of the fixed exchange rate regime for the oil-rich Kazakh economy (Working Paper No. 2018/11). Czech National Bank.Hledik, T., Musil, K., Rysanek, J., & Tonner, J. (2018). A macroeconomic forecasting model of the fixed exchange rate regime for the oil-rich Kazakh economy (Working Paper No. 2018/11). Czech National Bank.Imanbayev, A. A., Balabekova, D. B., & Kuralbayev, A. (2024). Inflation growth in Kazakhstan and current approaches to its reduction [Inflyacii v Kazahstane i aktualnye puti ego snizheniya]. Scientific Journal of Pedagogy and Economics, 412(6), 370–384. https://doi. org/10.32014/2024.2518-1467.875Imanbayev, A. A., Balabekova, D. B., & Kuralbayev, A. (2024). Inflation growth in Kazakhstan and current approaches to its reduction [Inflyacii v Kazahstane i aktualnye puti ego snizheniya]. Scientific Journal of Pedagogy and Economics, 412(6), 370–384. https://doi. org/10.32014/2024.2518-1467.875Impavido, G. (2025). Inflation determinants in Kazakhstan: A tale of (at least) two stories (IMF Working Paper No. 2025/210). International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229027571.001Impavido, G. (2025). Inflation determinants in Kazakhstan: A tale of (at least) two stories (IMF Working Paper No. 2025/210). International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229027571.001Jarzhanov, M. U., Kulshanova, A. B., & Shamar, B. E. (2024). Factors determining inflation expectations of the population of Kazakhstan [Faktory, opredelyayushie inflyacionnye ozhidaniya naseleniya v Kazahstane]. Economic Review (National Bank of Kazakhstan), 4, 4–32Jarzhanov, M. U., Kulshanova, A. B., & Shamar, B. E. (2024). Factors determining inflation expectations of the population of Kazakhstan [Faktory, opredelyayushie inflyacionnye ozhidaniya naseleniya v Kazahstane]. Economic Review (National Bank of Kazakhstan), 4, 4–32Kilian, L. (2009). Not all oil price shocks are alike: Disentangling demand and supply shocks in the crude oil market. American Economic Review, 99(3), 1053–1069. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.99.3.1053Kilian, L. (2009). Not all oil price shocks are alike: Disentangling demand and supply shocks in the crude oil market. American Economic Review, 99(3), 1053–1069. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.99.3.1053Kilian, L., & Zhou, X. (2023). Oil price shocks and inflation (Working Paper No. 2312). Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. https://doi.org/10.24149/wp2312Kilian, L., & Zhou, X. (2023). Oil price shocks and inflation (Working Paper No. 2312). Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. https://doi.org/10.24149/wp2312Kim, I. K., Lee, J., & Im, H. (2024). Asymmetry and non-linearity in exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from scanner data. Journal of International Money and Finance, 149, 103193. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. jimonfin.2024.103193Kim, I. K., Lee, J., & Im, H. (2024). Asymmetry and non-linearity in exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from scanner data. Journal of International Money and Finance, 149, 103193. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. jimonfin.2024.103193McCarthy, J. (2007). Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialized economies. Eastern Economic Journal, 33(4), 511–537. https://doi.org/10.1057/eej.2007.38McCarthy, J. (2007). Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialized economies. Eastern Economic Journal, 33(4), 511–537. https://doi.org/10.1057/eej.2007.38Mirza, N., Naqvi, B., Rizvi, S. K. A., & Boubaker, S. (2023). Exchange rate pass-through and inflation targeting regime under energy price shocks. Energy Economics, 124, 106761. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. eneco.2023.106761Mirza, N., Naqvi, B., Rizvi, S. K. A., & Boubaker, S. (2023). Exchange rate pass-through and inflation targeting regime under energy price shocks. Energy Economics, 124, 106761. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. eneco.2023.106761Narayan, P. K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: Evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979–1990. https://doi. org/10.1080/00036840500278103Narayan, P. K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: Evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979–1990. https://doi. org/10.1080/00036840500278103National Bank of Kazakhstan. (2025). Framework and purpose of monetary policy. Retrieved June 30, 2026 from https://nationalbank.kzNational Bank of Kazakhstan. (2025). Framework and purpose of monetary policy. Retrieved June 30, 2026 from https://nationalbank.kzPan, Z., Bai, Z., Xing, X., & Wang, Z. (2024). U.S. inflation and global commodity prices: Asymmetric interdependence. Research in International Business and Finance, 69, 102245. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. ribaf.2024.102245Pan, Z., Bai, Z., Xing, X., & Wang, Z. (2024). U.S. inflation and global commodity prices: Asymmetric interdependence. Research in International Business and Finance, 69, 102245. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. ribaf.2024.102245Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (1999). An autoregressive distributed-lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. In S. Strøm (Ed.), Econometrics and economic theory in the 20th century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium (pp. 371–413). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CCOL521633230.011Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (1999). An autoregressive distributed-lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. In S. Strøm (Ed.), Econometrics and economic theory in the 20th century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium (pp. 371–413). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CCOL521633230.011Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616Rahimov, V., Jafarova, N., & Ganbarov, F. (2017). The exchange rate pass-through to CPI and its components in oil-exporting CIS countries (IHEID Working Paper No. 06-2017). Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies.Rahimov, V., Jafarova, N., & Ganbarov, F. (2017). The exchange rate pass-through to CPI and its components in oil-exporting CIS countries (IHEID Working Paper No. 06-2017). Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies.Taylor, J. B. (2000). Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms. European Economic Review, 44(7), 1389–1408. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0014- 2921(00)00037-4Taylor, J. B. (2000). Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms. European Economic Review, 44(7), 1389–1408. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0014- 2921(00)00037-4Ujkani, X., & Gara, A. (2023). Determinants of the inflation rate: Evidence from panel data. Economics: Innovative and Economics Research Journal, 11(2), 169–182. https://doi.org/10.2478/eoik-2023-0054Ujkani, X., & Gara, A. (2023). Determinants of the inflation rate: Evidence from panel data. Economics: Innovative and Economics Research Journal, 11(2), 169–182. https://doi.org/10.2478/eoik-2023-0054World Bank. (2025). Commodity markets: Pink Sheet data. Retrieved June 30, 2026 https://www.worldbank. org/en/research/commodity-markets.World Bank. (2025). Commodity markets: Pink Sheet data. Retrieved June 30, 2026 https://www.worldbank. org/en/research/commodity-markets.

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.