espEconomy: strategy and practiceEconomy: strategy and practice1997-99672663-550XИнститут экономики10.51176/1997-9967-2021-3-106-116esp-345Research ArticleСтатьиИспользование платежных карт в Казахстане: анализ и прогнозThe Use Of Payment Cards In Kazakhstan: Analysis And Forecasthttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7682-2727КрединаА. А.KredinaA. A.

Кредина Анна Александровна - докторант

пр. Абая 8а, 050010, Алматы, Казахстан

+87012862176

Anna A. Kredina - PhD

Abay Avenue 8a, 050010, Almaty, Kazakhstan

+87012862176

anna.kredina@uib.kzhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-0847-3537КошкинаО. В.KoshkinaO. V.

Кошкина Ольга Валентиновна - PhD

пр. Абая 8а, 050010, Алматы, Казахстан

Olga V. Koshkina - Associate professor

Abay Avenue 8a, 050010, Almaty, Kazakhstan

o.koshkina@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3805-0244ВасаЛасзлоVasaLászló

Ласзло Васа - профессор университета

Дьер, Венгрия

László Vasa - PhD

Győr, Hungary

laszlo.vasa@ifat.huУниверситет международного бизнесаКазахстанUniversity of International BusinessKazakhstanСечени Иштван УниверситетіВенгрияSzéchenyi István UniversityHungary202130092021163106116Copyright © Кредина А.А., Кошкина О.В., Васа Л., 20212021Кредина А.А., Кошкина О.В., Васа Л.Kredina A.A., Koshkina O.V., Vasa L.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://esp.ieconom.kz/jour/article/view/345

Целью исследования является анализ и прогнозирование использования платежных карт для осуществления безналичных платежей через национальные платежные системы в Казахстане. Исходя из поставленной цели были выдвинута гипотеза о том, что в Казахстане имеется взаимосвязь между количеством платежных карт и объемом безналичных расчетов. Данная гипотеза в результате проведенного исследования подтвердилась. Информационной базой исследования послужили данные по платежным картам, которые были взяты из Статистического Бюллетеня Национального Банка Республики Казахстан. Проверка поставленных гипотез осуществлялась с помощью корреляционного анализа за три периода: 2009, 2016, 2020 годы. Был использован метод нахождения корреляции Пирсона в программе SPSS. Результаты показали изменение взаимосвязей в сторону уменьшения между выбранными индикаторами и количеством переведенных денежных средств с течением времени. Также в данном исследовании был проведен прогноз на 2021-2023 годы по рассматриваемым индикаторам. Для составления прогноза по рассматриваемым индикаторам применялся графический метод (полиномиальная линия тренда). Полученный прогноз показывает рост держателей карт и как следствие распространение количества платежных карт среди населения в 2021-2023 годах. Практическая значимость данного исследования состоит в том, что предложенная методика может помочь спрогнозировать динамику по платежным картам в любой стране мира. Также даны рекомендации для дальнейшего совершенствования финансовой системы, так как повышение прозрачности денежного оборота в малом и среднем бизнесе приведет к положительному результату при осуществлении программы по всеобщему декларированию доходов в 2025 году.

The aim of the study is to analyze and forecast the use of payment cards for making non-cash payments through national payment systems in Kazakhstan. Based on this goal, a hypothesis was put forward that in Kazakhstan, there is a relationship between the number of payment cards and the volume of non-cash payments. This hypothesis was confirmed because of the study. The information base of the study was the data on payment cards, which were taken from the Statistical Bulletin of the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Hypothesis testing was carried out using correlation analysis for three periods: 2009, 2016, 2020. The method of finding Pearson’s correlation in the SPSS program was used. The results showed a downward change in the relationship between the selected indicators and the amount of funds transferred over time. Also, in this study, a forecast was made for 2021-2023 for the indicators under consideration. To make a forecast for the indicators under consideration, a graphical method (polynomial trend line) was used. The resulting forecast shows the growth of cardholders and, consequently, the spread of the number of payment cards among the population in 2021-2023. The practical significance of this study is that the proposed methodology can help predict the dynamics of payment cards in any country in the world. Recommendations are also given for further improving the financial system, since increasing the transparency of monetary circulation in small-and-medium sized businesses will lead to a positive result in the implementation of the program for universal declaration of income in 2025.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.