espEconomy: strategy and practiceEconomy: strategy and practice1997-99672663-550XИнститут экономики10.51176/1997-9967-2022-2-98-110esp-713Research ArticleДЕМОГРАФИЯ, ЧЕЛОВЕЧЕСКИЕ РЕСУРСЫ И РЫНОК ТРУДАDEMOGRAPHY, HUMAN RESOURCES AND THE LABOR MARKETАнализ и прогноз демографической ситуации в КазахстанеAnalysis and Forecast of the Demographic Situation in Kazakhstanhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-8388-8559КангалаковаД. М.KangalakovaD. M.

PhD

тел.: 87016277060

КН МОН РК

Институт экономики

A25K1B0

ул. Шевченко 28

Алматы

Dana M. Kangalakova, PhD

tel.: : 87016277060

CS MES RK

Institute of Economics

A25K1B0

28 Shevchenko Str.

Almaty

dmuratbekovna@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9673-2107АбжанЖ. К.AbzhanZh. K.

PhD, старший преподаватель

020000

ул. Жубанова 7

Нур-Султан

Zhanat K. Abzhan, PhD, Senior Lecturer

020000

7 Zhubanova Str.

Nur-Sultan

zhanetta.kalieva@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-6506-2446ИбраимоваС. Ж.IbraimovaS. Zh.

к. э. н. (Ph.D), профессор

010000

ул. Мухамеджанова 37А

Нур-Султан

Saule Zh. Ibraimova, Candidate of Economic Sciences, professor

010000

37A Mukhamedkhanova Str.

Nur-Sultan

saule_ibraimova_kz@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1865-4681СпанкуловаЛ. С.SpankulovaL. S.

д. э. н., доцент

050040

пр. аль-Фараби 71

Алматы

Lazat S. Spankulova, Doctor of Economics, Associate Professor

050040

71 Al-Farabi Ave.

Almaty

lyazzat.spankulova@kaznu.kzМОН РККазахстанMES RKKazakhstanEsil UniversityКазахстанEsil UniversityKazakhstanКазахский университет технологии и бизнесаКазахстанKazakh University of Technology and BusinessKazakhstanКазахский национальный университет им. аль-ФарабиКазахстанAl-Farabi Kazakh National UniversityKazakhstan20223006202217298110Copyright © Кангалакова Д.М., Абжан Ж.К., Ибраимова С.Ж., Спанкулова Л.С., 20222022Кангалакова Д.М., Абжан Ж.К., Ибраимова С.Ж., Спанкулова Л.С.Kangalakova D.M., Abzhan Z.K., Ibraimova S.Z., Spankulova L.S.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://esp.ieconom.kz/jour/article/view/713

   Прогнозирование демографических процессов представляет собой расчет будущей численности, половозрастной структуры граждан в разрезе отдельных стран, их регионов, региональных образований, а также всего мира в целом. При стратегическом планировании государственного экономико-социального положения важное значение имеет численность населения. В данной исследовательской работе приведен анализ демографического прогноза на примере Республики Казахстан.

   Цели исследования заключались в анализе численности населения Казахстана в период с 2000 по 2020 годы, выявлении особенностей и прогнозе численности населения до 2050 года. В исследовании использовались такие методы, как анализ, синтез, индукция, дедукция и метод, позволяющий предсказывать поведение процессов в будущем. При использовании метода экспраполяции были определены коэффициенты рождаемости, смертности, естественного, абсолютного, среднего прироста населения и коэффициент миграции. На основе рассчитанных коэффициентов была спрогнозирована численность населения республики до 2050 года. В ходе исследования было установлено, что численность населения в Казахстане ежегодно возрастала на 200-300 тысяч человек, рождаемость увеличилась в два раза с 2000 по 2020 годы, смертность увеличилась на 7 %, наблюдается высокий демографический потенциал в Туркестанской и Алматинской областях, низкий - в Северо-Казахстанской, Костанайской и Западно-Казахстанской областях. Результаты исследования показали, что в 2050 году численность населения составит 26,5 млн. человек. В работе даны рекомендации по улучшению демографической ситуации в стране. Результаты исследования могут найти применение в теории демографического прогнозирования и в работе по стратегическому планированию государственных органов.

   Forecasting demographic processes is a calculation of the future number, gender, and age structure of citizens in the context of individual countries, their regions, regional entities, as well as the whole world as a whole. In the strategic planning of the state’s economic and social situation, the population is important. This research paper provides an analysis of the demographic forecast in the example of Kazakhstan.

   The purpose of the study was to analyze the population of Kazakhstan in the period from 2000 to 2020, identify features, and forecast the population until 2050. The study used methods such as analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, and a method, that allows, to predict the behavior of processes in the future. Using the method of extrapolation, the coefficients of fertility, mortality, natural, absolute, average population growth, and migration coefficient were determined. Based on the calculated coefficients, the population of the republic was predicted until 2050. The study found that the population in Kazakhstan increased by 200-300 thousand people annually, the birth rate doubled from 2000 to 2020, mortality increased by 7%, there is a high demographic potential in Turkestan and Almaty regions, high, low - in North Kazakhstan, Kostanay and West Kazakhstan regions. The results of the study showed that in 2050 the population will be 26.5 million people. The paper provides recommendations for improving the demographic situation in the country. The results of the study can be applied in the theory of demographic forecasting and in the work on the strategic planning of state bodies.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.