References

esp

Economy: strategy and practice

1997-99672663-550X

Институт экономики

10.51176/1997-9967-2022-2-160-177

esp-717

Research Article

МАКРОЭКОНОМИКА, МИРОВАЯ ЭКОНОМИКА

MACROECONOMICS, WORLD ECONOMY

Перспективы развития внешней торговли Казахстана со странами всеобъемлющего регионального экономического партнерства

Prospects for the Development of Foreign Trade of Kazakhstan with the Countries of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3942-8875

Дулмабаева

Р. Т.

Dulambayeva

R. T.

доктор экономических наук, профессор

Z00P5M4

пр. Абая, 33а

Нур-Султан

Raushan T. Dulambayeva, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor

Z00P5M4

33a Abai Ave.

Nur-Sultan

r.dulambayeva@apa.kz

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0529-2009

Есенжолова

Г. Д.

Yessenzholova

G. D.

докторант

тел.: 87019480448

Z00P5M4

пр. Абая, 33а

Нур-Султан

Gaziza D. Yessenzholova, Doctorant

tel.: 87019480448

Z00P5M4

33a Abai Ave.

Nur-Sultan

g.yessenzholova@apa.kz

Академия государственного управления при Президенте Республики КазахстанКазахстанAcademy of Public Administration under the President of the Republic of KazakhstanKazakhstan

2022

30062022

172160177

2022

Дулмабаева Р.Т., Есенжолова Г.Д.

Dulambayeva R.T., Yessenzholova G.D.

Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://esp.ieconom.kz/jour/article/view/717

Исследование посвящено изучению перспектив развития внешней торговли Казахстана со странами Всеобъемлющего регионального экономического партнерства (ВРЭП) путем анализа показателей открытости экономики и применения эконометрических моделей прогнозирования. Актуальность работы обусловлена необходимостью рассмотрения перспектив развития внешнеторговых отношений Казахстана с новым торговым объединением ВРЭП для дальнейшего формирования направлений развития таких отношений на основе принципов доказательной политики, так как результаты, полученные в исследовании, могут послужить основой для принятия государственных управленческих решений в области торговой и таможенной политики. В рамках статьи авторами применена стратегия комбинированных методов исследования с проведением сравнительного анализа результатов использования каждого из них. Так, использованы эконометрические методы прогнозирования Бокса-Дженкинса, экспоненциального сглаживания с применением тестов на проверку их адекватности и валидности. Рассчитаны ошибки прогноза, такие как среднеквадратическая ошибка, средняя абсолютная ошибка и средняя абсолютная ошибка в процентах. Результатом исследования стали прогнозы внешнеторгового оборота Казахстана со странами ВРЭП на краткосрочную перспективу, которые позволили сделать вывод о положительной динамике развития данных торговых отношений. Более точный прогноз представлен на основе использования метода экспоненциального сглаживания, который демонстрирует наименьший размер ошибок и является более простым в применении.

The study is devoted to the study of the prospects for the development of Kazakhstan’s foreign trade with the countries of the Comprehensive Regional Economic Partnership (CREP) by analyzing the indicators of the openness of the economy and the use of econometric forecasting models. The relevance of the work is due to the need to consider the prospects for the development of Kazakhstan’s foreign trade relations with the new trade association CREP for further formation of directions for the development of such relations based on the principles of evidence-based policy, since the results obtained in the study can serve as a basis for making public management decisions in the field of trade and customs policy. Within the framework of the article, the authors applied a strategy of combined research methods with a comparative analysis of the results of using each of them. Thus, econometric methods of Box-Jenkins forecasting, exponential smoothing with the use of tests to check their adequacy and validity were used. Forecast errors are calculated, such as the root-mean-square error, the average absolute error and the average absolute error as a percentage. The study resulted in forecasts of Kazakhstan’s foreign trade turnover with the CREP countries for the short term, which allowed us to conclude about the positive dynamics of the development of these trade relations. A more accurate forecast is presented based on the use of the exponential smoothing method, which demonstrates the smallest error size and is easier to apply.

торговая политикавсеобъемлющее региональное экономическое партнерствометод Бокса-Дженкинсаэкспоненциальное сглаживаниеэкономикатаможенное регулированиестратегия

Trade PolicyComprehensive Regional Economic PartnershipBox-Jenkins MethodExponential SmoothingEconomicsCustoms RegulationStrategy

Исследование не имело спонсорской поддержки (собственные ресурсы)

The study was not sponsored (own resources)

References1

Global trade rebound beats expectations but marked by regional divergences. World Trade organization, (2021) [updated October 04, 2021; cited December 12, 2021]. Available: https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres21_e/pr889_e.htm

Bureau of National Statistics, (2021) [updated October 10, 2021; cited November 11, 2021]. Available: http://www.stat.gov.kz

Official website of the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia, (2021) [updated October 10, 2021; cited November 20, 2021]. Available: https://www.armstat.am/ru/

Official website of the National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus, (2021) [updated October 10, 2021; cited November 29, 2021]. Available: https://www.belstat.gov.by/

Official website of the National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic, (2021) [updated October 10, 2021; cited November 11, 2021]. Available: http://www.stat.kg/ru/

Official website of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, (2021) [updated October 10, 2021; cited December 12, 2021]. Available: https://rosstat.gov.ru/

Appeal of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Kemelevich Tokayev to the heads of the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union. Eurasian Economic Commission, (2021) [updated January 18, 2021; cited December 12, 2021]. Available: http://www.eurasiancommission.org/ru/nae/news/Pages/18-01-2021-1.aspx

Vinod, K. A., (2016). Mega-FTAs and the Trade-Security Nexus: The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. Asia Pacific Issues, 123, 1-8.

Vinod, K. A. (2016) Mega-FTAs and the Trade-Security Nexus: The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. Asia Pacific Issues, 123, 1-8.

Korgun, I. A., Zuev, V. N., (2020). The trade policy of the Republic of Korea as an instrument for the realization of the national economic interests of the country. Bulletin of International Organizations, 15 (2), 236–254. https://doi.org/10.17323/1996-7845-2020-02-11

Korgun, I. A., & Zuev, V. N. (2020). The trade policy of the Republic of Korea as an instrument for the realization of the national economic interests of the country. Bulletin of International Organizations [Vestnik mezhdunarodnyh organizacij], 15 (2), 236–254. https://doi.org/10.17323/1996-7845-2020-02-11 (in Russ.)

Glebkova, I. Y. U., & Kachanova, N. N. (2013). Statistical analysis and forecasting methods of Russian foreign trade indicators. Innovation and investment, 7, 162-164.

Glebkova, I. Y. U., & Kachanova, N. N. (2013). Statistical analysis and forecasting methods of Russian foreign trade indicators. Innovation and investment [Innovacii i investicii], 7, 162-164. (in Russ.)

Methodology for the WTO trade forecast of april 8 2020. Economic research and statistics division. World Trade organization, (2020) [updated April 8, 2020; cited January 12, 2022]. Available: https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres20_e/methodpr855_e.pdf/

Levashenko, A. D., & Sokolyanskaya, A. N. (2015). OECD macroeconomic forecasting for effective foreign economic activity. Russian Foreign Economic Bulletin, (3), 36-45.

Levashenko, A. D., & Sokolyanskaya, A. N. (2015). OECD macroeconomic forecasting for effective foreign economic activity. Russian Foreign Economic Bulletin [Rossijskij vneshneekonomicheskij vestnik], (3), 36-45. (in Russ.)

Mal’ganova, I. G., & Shajhutdinov, F. M. (2018). Development of the optimal forecast scenario of foreign trade of the Republic of Tatarstan until 2020. Geopolitics and ecogeodynamics of regions, 4 (4), 301-309.

Kylbaev, E. S. (2016). Using gravity models to predict foreign trade between countries. Issues of the new economy, 1, 29-34.

Kylbaev, E. S. (2016). Using gravity models to predict foreign trade between countries. Issues of the new economy [Voprosy novoj ekonomiki], 1, 29-34. (in Russ.)

Popescu, A. (2018). Romania’s sunflower seeds production, export and import-analysis of the 2007-2017 period and forecast for 2018-2022 horizon. Scientific Papers Series Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development, 18 (4), 261-270.

Qu, Q., Li, Z., Tang, J., Wu, S., & Wang, R. (2019). A trend forecast of import and export trade total volume based on LSTM. In IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering (Vol. 646, No. 1, p. 012002). IOP Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1088/1757-899X/646/1/012002

Hamhoeva, F. Y., (2020). Neural networks in economic analysis: pros and cons. Norwegian Journal of Development of the International Science, (51-4), 72-75. https://doi.org/10.24412/3453-9875-2020-51-4-72-75

Box, G. E., & Pierce, D. A. (1970). Distribution of residual autocorrelations in autoregressive-integrated moving average time series models. Journal of the American statistical Association, 65 (332), 1509-1526. https://doi.org/10.2307/2284333

Upadhyay, V. K. (2013). Modelling and forecasting export and import of Indian wood-based panel using ARIMA models. Elixir Stat, 63, 18145-18148.

Upadhyay, V. K. (2013). Modelling and forecasting export and import of Indian wood based panel using ARIMA models. Elixir Stat, 63, 18145-18148.

Farooqi, A. (2014) ARIMA model building and forecasting on imports and exports of Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Statistics and Operation Research, 10 (2), 157-168.

Farooqi A. (2014) ARIMA model building and forecasting on imports and exports of Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Statistics and Operation Research, 10 (2), 157-168.

Ersen, N., Akyüz, İ., & Bayram, B. Ç. (2019). The forecasting of the exports and imports of paper and paper products of Turkey using Box-Jenkins method. Eurasian Journal of Forest Science, 7 (1), 54-65. https://doi.org/10.31195/ejejfs.502397

Ghauri, S. P., Ahmed, R. R., Štreimikienė, D., & Štreimikis, J. (2020). Forecasting exports and imports by using autoregressive (AR) with seasonal dummies and Box-Jenkins approaches: a case of Pakistan. Inžinerinė ekonomika, 31 (3), 291-301. https://doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.31.3.25323

Ghauri, S. P., Ahmed, R. R., Štreimikienė, D., & Štreimikis, J. (2020). Forecasting exports and imports by using autoregressive (AR) with seasonal dummies and Box-Jenkins approaches: a case of Pakistan. Inžinerinė ekonomika, 31(3), 291-301. https://doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.31.3.25323

Cvil, M. M., & Karapetyan, A. A. (2016). Forecasting using adaptive methods based on foreign trade data of the Southern Customs Administration. Academic bulletin of the Rostov branch of the Russian Customs Academy, 4 (25), 112-117.

Cvil, M. M., & Karapetyan, A. A. (2016). Forecasting using adaptive methods based on foreign trade data of the Southern Customs Administration. Akademicheskij vestnik Rostovskogo filiala Rossijskoj tamozhennoj akademii [Academic bulletin of the Rostov branch of the Russian Customs Academy], 4 (25), 112-117. (in Russ.)

Mladenović, J., Lepojević, V., & Janković-Milić, V. (2016). Modelling and prognosis of the export of the Republic of Serbia by using seasonal Holt-Winters and ARIMA method. Economic Themes, 54 (2), 233-260. URL: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/305677434_Modelling_and_Prognosis_of_the_Export_of_the_Republic_of_Serbia_by_Using_Seasonal_Holt-Winters_and_Arima_Method

Dzhamel, L., Derbali, A., Lamuchi, A., & El’nagar, A., (2021). Trade openness and competitiveness: BRICS and Sub-Saharan Africa. Bulletin of International Organizations, 16 (1), 64–84. https://doi.org/10.17323/1996-7845-2021-01-03

Dzhamel, L., Derbali, A., Lamuchi, A., & El’nagar, A. (2021). Trade openness and competitiveness: BRICS and Sub-Saharan Africa. Vestnik mezhdunarodnyh organizacij [Bulletin of International Organizations], 16 (1), 64–84. https://doi.org/10.17323/1996-7845-2021-01-03 (in Russ.)

Lipin, A. S., & Polyakova, O. V. (2014). Assessment of integration processes in the single economic space on the example of trade in goods. Eurasian Economic Integration, 1 (22), 80-96.

Lipin, A. S., & Polyakova, O. V. (2014). Assessment of integration processes in the single economic space on the example of trade in goods. Evrazijskaya Ekonomicheskaya Integraciya, 1 (22), 80-96. (in Russ.)

Official website of the State Revenue Committee of the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Kazakhstan, (2021) [updated October 10, 2021; cited November 11, 2021]. Available: https://kgd.gov.kz/ru/exp_trade_files

Boks, D., & Dzhenkins G. (1974). Time series analysis. Forecast and management. M.: World.

Boks, D., & Dzhenkins G. (1974). Time series analysis. Forecast and management. M.: Mir. (in Russ.)

Sazhin, Y. V., Katyn, A. V., & Sarajkin, Y. V. (2013). Time series analysis and forecasting. Saransk: Mordovian University Press.

Sazhin, Y. V., Katyn, A. V., & Sarajkin, Y. V. (2013). Time series analysis and forecasting. Saransk: Izdatel’stvo Mordovskogo Universiteta. (in Russ.)

Official website of the World Bank, (2021) [updated October 10, 2021; cited November 30, 2021]. Available: https://data.worldbank.org/

What does China mean for Kazakhstan? Figures and facts. Forbes Kazakhstan, (2019) [updated September 12, 2021; cited January 10, 2022]. Available: https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres20_e/methodpr855_e.pdf

Loginov, E. L., & Loginova, V. E. (2015). Financial and economic crisis in China: the need to change the strategic model of development of the Chinese economy. Financial analytics: problems and solutions, 39 (273), 2-9.

Loginov, E. L., & Loginova, V. E. (2015). Financial and economic crisis in China: the need to change the strategic model of development of the Chinese economy. Finansovaya analitika: problemy i resheniya [Financial analytics: problems and solutions], 39 (273), 2-9. (in Russ.)

Ahunbaev, A. M., Dauranov, T. S., Kuznecov, A. S., Pestros’yan, A. R., & Nikitushkina, Y. V. (2020). Eurasian Economic Integration. Moscow: EDB Publications.

Ahunbaev, A. M., Dauranov, T. S., Kuznecov, A. S., Pestros’yan, A. R., & Nikitushkina, Y. V. (2020). Eurasian Economic Integration. Moscow: Publikacii EABR. (in Russ.)

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.