espEconomy: strategy and practiceEconomy: strategy and practice1997-99672663-550XИнститут экономики10.51176/1997-9967-2022-2-178-189esp-718Research ArticleМАКРОЭКОНОМИКА, МИРОВАЯ ЭКОНОМИКАMACROECONOMICS, WORLD ECONOMYВлияние изменений тарифных ставок на импорт КазахстанаThe Effects of changes in Tariff Rates on Imports: Evidence from Kazakhstanhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7625-8783АйтуарА. Н.AituarA. N.

PhD по экономике, ассистент-профессор

тел.: 87014449949

Международная школа экономики

010000

Коргалжынское шоссе 8

Нур-Султан

Azat N. Aituar, Assistant Professor

tel.: 87014449949

International School of Economics

010000

Korgalzhyn 8

Nur-Sultan

a.aituar@kazguu.kzhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7406-0589КемельбаеваС. С.KemelbayevaS. S.

к. э. н., PhD по экономике, ассоциированный профессор

Международная школа экономики

010000

Коргалжынское шоссе 8

Нур-Султан

Saule S. Kemelbayeva, PhD in Economics, Associate Professor

International School of Economics

010000

Korgalzhyn 8

Nur-Sultan

s_kemelbayeva@kazguu.kzУниверситет КАЗГЮУ им. М. НарикбаеваКазахстанM. Narikbayev KAZGUU UniversityKazakhstan202201072022172178189Copyright © Айтуар А.Н., Кемельбаева С.С., 20222022Айтуар А.Н., Кемельбаева С.С.Aituar A.N., Kemelbayeva S.S.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://esp.ieconom.kz/jour/article/view/718

   Данная статья является частью серии публикаций, в которых проводится оценка влияния политики Евразийского таможенного союза на экономику Казахстана.

   Целью данного исследования является изучение влияния изменений тарифных ставок на торговые потоки страны. Казахстан присоединился к Евразийскому таможенному союзу в 2010 году. В мае 2014 года страны Евразийского таможенного союза подписали договор о создании Экономического Союза. С этого момента торговая политика Казахстана претерпела значительные изменения: снизились нетарифные барьеры между странами Евразийского таможенного союза, значительно увеличились тарифные ставки со странами, не входящими в Евразийский таможенный союз - с 6,45 до 12,24 %. В данном исследовании используются панельные данные торговых потоков между странами Евразийского таможенного союза и другими 195 странами за 20 лет, с 2000 по 2019 годы. Данный анализ показал, что повышение тарифных ставок негативно повлияло на импорт в Казахстан из стран, не входящих в Евразийский таможенный союз. По оценкам динамической гравитационной модели с использованием эконометрического метода GMM, увеличение тарифной ставки страны на 1 процентный пункт (например, с 7 % до 8 %) уменьшает импорт на 1,8 %. Следовательно, повышение тарифной ставки в результате вступления Казахстана в Евразийский таможенный союз негативно сказалось на импорте из стран, не входящих в Евразийский таможенный союз, снизив, в итоге, импорт из этих стран на 10,6 %.

   This paper is the continuation of the research on the impact of Eurasian Customs Union policies on the economy of Kazakhstan.

   The study provides new evidence on the effects of Customs Unions on its members. In particular, this paper investigates the impact of tariff rate changes in Kazakhstan due to the establishment of the Eurasian Economic Union. Kazakhstan joined Eurasian Customs Union in 2010. Then the Eurasian Customs Union became the Eurasian Economic Union in May 2014. Since the establishment of the ECU, Kazakhstan’s trade policy has experienced considerable change. The tariff rates in Kazakhstan with countries outside the ECU almost doubled, with average tariff rates increasing from 6.45 to 12.24 %. This paper uses the dataset on bilateral trade flows between ECU countries and other 195 countries for 20 years from 2000 to 2019. An empirical analysis is performed on a country level, and panel data techniques are used to estimate whether the increase in the tariffs with non-members of CU will lead to trade diversion with suppliers outside the CU. The analysis demonstrated that the increase in tariff rates negatively affected imports to Kazakhstan from non-ECU countries. The effect of tariff increase, using the dynamic gravity model and GMM econometric technique, is estimated to be a 1.8 % decrease in imports if the average external tariff rate of Kazakhstan increases by one percentage point (e. g. from 7 % to 8 %). Due to the increase in tariff rates, the overall estimated reduction of imports of Kazakhstan is 10.66 %.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.