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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">esp</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Economy: strategy and practice</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Economy: strategy and practice</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1997-9967</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2663-550X</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Институт экономики</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.51176/1997-9967-2022-2-190-205</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">esp-719</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>МАКРОЭКОНОМИКА, МИРОВАЯ ЭКОНОМИКА</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>MACROECONOMICS, WORLD ECONOMY</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Макроэкономические, политические и институциональные факторы экономического роста</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Macroeconomic, Political and Institutional Factors of Economic Growth</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8972-4552</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Жораев</surname><given-names>О. Ж.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Zhorayev</surname><given-names>O.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>магистр прикладной экономики, магистр государственной политики</p><p>тел.: 8 7172750120</p><p>020000</p><p>Кургальжинское шоссе 8</p><p>Нур-Султан</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Olzhas Zhorayev, Master of Science in Applied Economics, Master of Arts in Public Policy</p><p>tel.: 8 7172750120</p><p>020000</p><p>8 Qorghalzhyn Hwy</p><p>Nur-Sultan</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">o_zhorayev@kazguu.kz</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Хе</surname><given-names>Х.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>He</surname><given-names>H.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>магистр государственной политики</p><p>WC2R 2LS</p><p>Странд</p><p>Лондон</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Haoyue He, Master of Arts in Public Policy</p><p>WC2R 2LS</p><p>Strand</p><p>London</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Университет КАЗГЮУ им. М. Нарикбаева</institution><country>Казахстан</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>M.Narikbayev KAZGUU University</institution><country>Kazakhstan</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Королевский колледж Лондона</institution><country>Великобритания</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>King’s College London</institution><country>United Kingdom</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2022</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>01</day><month>07</month><year>2022</year></pub-date><volume>17</volume><issue>2</issue><fpage>190</fpage><lpage>205</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Жораев О.Ж., Хе Х., 2022</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2022</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Жораев О.Ж., Хе Х.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Zhorayev O., He H.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://esp.ieconom.kz/jour/article/view/719">https://esp.ieconom.kz/jour/article/view/719</self-uri><abstract><p>   В обширной теоретической и эмпирической литературе обсуждается, как на экономическое развитие влияют различные экономические, политические, институциональные, социальные и другие факторы. Классическая теория макроэкономического роста утверждает, что более бедные государства должны иметь более высокие темпы экономического роста по сравнению с более богатыми государствами из-за так называемого «эффекта догоняющего развития». Концепция «институционального склероза», предложенная Олсоном, утверждает, что экономические показатели хуже в странах, имеющих влиятельные группы интересов. Некоторые исследователи предполагают, что экономический рост обусловлен «институциональной согласованностью», когда одно учреждение в стране способствует повышению эффективности другого. В данной статье с помощью регрессионного анализа мы оцениваем влияние различных факторов на экономический рост в 187 странах за период 2001-2018 гг. Наши результаты не полностью подтверждают аргумент Олсона о том, что экономический спад в некоторых странах был обусловлен влиянием групп интересов. Наши эконометрические результаты не подтверждают важность эффективности государственного управления и качества государственной политики. В то же время, наиболее надежным результатом нашего анализа является статистически значимая отрицательная взаимосвязь между уровнем первоначального экономического развития страны и ее последующим средне- и долгосрочным экономическим ростом. Вклад данного исследования в существующую литературу заключается в следующем анализе: тестировании эффекта «институционального склероза», предложенного Олсоном, на экономическое развитие за последние два десятилетия; оценке комбинированного эффекта взаимодействующих переменных, который объясняет предсказания обеих теорий – «групп интересов» и «разновидностей капитализма»; учете различных макроэкономических и социальных факторов наряду с политическими в одной многомерной модели экономического роста.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>   Broad theoretical and empirical literature discusses how economic development is affected by different economic, political, institutional, social, and other factors. The classic macroeconomic growth theory argues that poorer states must have higher rates of economic growth compared to more prosperous states due to the so-called ‘catch-up effect’. The concept of ‘institutional sclerosis’, suggested by Olson, claims that economic performance is worse in countries that have powerful interest groups. Some scholars suggest that economic growth is conditioned by ‘institutional coherence’ when one institution in a country promotes the efficiency of another. In this research, using regression analysis we estimate the effect of different factors on economic growth in 187 countries from 2001 to 2018. Our findings do not fully support Olson’s argument that economic decline in some countries was conditioned by the influence of interest groups. Our econometric results do not confirm the importance of the effectiveness of state governance and the quality of public policy. At the same time, the most robust result of our analysis is a statistically significant negative relationship between the level of a country’s initial economic development and its following medium- and long-term economic growth. This research contributes to the existing literature by testing Olson’s institutional sclerosis effect for the last two decade,; estimating the combined effect of interacted variables that explains predictions of both ‘interest groups’ and ‘varieties of capitalism’ theories; considering various macroeconomic and social factors along with political ones in one multivariate model.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>экономический рост</kwd><kwd>группы интересов</kwd><kwd>разновидности капитализма</kwd><kwd>институциональная согласованность</kwd><kwd>макроэкономическая конвергенция</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>Economic Growth</kwd><kwd>Interest Groups</kwd><kwd>Varieties of Capitalism</kwd><kwd>Institutional Coherence</kwd><kwd>Macroeconomic Convergence</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><funding-statement xml:lang="ru">Исследование не имело спонсорской поддержки (собственные ресурсы)</funding-statement><funding-statement xml:lang="en">The study was not sponsored (own resources)</funding-statement></funding-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Olson, M. 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