espEconomy: strategy and practiceEconomy: strategy and practice1997-99672663-550XИнститут экономики10.51176/1997-9967-2022-3-169-183esp-805Research ArticleДЕМОГРАФИЯ, ЧЕЛОВЕЧЕСКИЕ РЕСУРСЫ И РЫНОК ТРУДАDEMOGRAPHY, HUMAN RESOURCES AND THE LABOR MARKETВлияние факторов демографического перехода на демографические дивиденды в Республике КазахстанThe Influence of Demographic Transition Factors on the Demographic Dividends in the Republic of Kazakhstanhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-1708-8208БектургановаМ. С.BekturganovaM. S.

Бектурганова М. С. - PhD, в.н.с.

ул. Шевченко 28, A25K1B0, Алматы

Makpal S. Bekturganova – Ph.D., leading researcher

28 Shevchenko Str., A25K1B0, Almaty

maka_91@inbox.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1232-4788КенжегуловаГ. К.KenzhegulovaG. K.

Кенжегулова Г.К. – докторант, н.с.

ул. Шевченко 28, A25K1B0, Алматы

Gaukhar K. Kenzhegulova – PhD student, researcher

28 Shevchenko Str., A25K1B0, Almaty

gaukhar.kenzhegulova@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-4841-4742ДжусибалиеваА. К.JussibaliyevaA. K.

Джусибалиева А.К. - к.э.н., ассоциированный профессор к.э.н., ассоциированный профессор

пр. Б.Момышулы 23, Z00P7F6, Нур-Султан

Aruzhan K. Jussibaliyeva – Candidate of Economic Science, Associate Professor

23 B.Momyshuly Ave., Z00P7F6, Nur-Sultan

ТлеубердиеваС. С.TleuberdiyevaS. S.

Тлеубердиева С.С. – PhD, доцент

ул.Сатпаева 2, Z19A0K6, Нур-Султан

Saltanat S. Tleuberdiyeva – PhD, associate professor

2 Satpayev Str., Z19A0K6, Nur-Sultan

tleuberdieva@yandex.ruИнститут экономики КН МОН РККазахстанInstitute of Economics CS MES RKKazakhstanНаучно-исследовательская компания «Инноватор»КазахстанScientific and Production Enterprise «Innovator»KazakhstanЕвразийский национальный университет Л.Н. ГумилеваКазахстанL. N. Gumilyov Eurasian National UniversityKazakhstan202228092022173169183Copyright © Бектурганова М.С., Кенжегулова Г.К., Джусибалиева А.К., Тлеубердиева С.С., 20222022Бектурганова М.С., Кенжегулова Г.К., Джусибалиева А.К., Тлеубердиева С.С.Bekturganova M.S., Kenzhegulova G.K., Jussibaliyeva A.K., Tleuberdiyeva S.S.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://esp.ieconom.kz/jour/article/view/805

Цель данной статьи исследовать взаимосвязи факторов демографического перехода и демографического дивиденда в развивающихся странах на примере Казахстана. Приведенный обзор литературы позволил выделить два основных фактора, оказывающих косвенное влияние на рост экономики: население трудоспособного возраста и рабочая сила. Для исследования связи между этими двумя факторами были проведены корреляционный и регрессионный анализы с учетом городской и сельской местности. Для подтверждения четырех гипотез была использована программа SPSS. Где Working Age Total зависимая переменная, а Women Working Age Urban Population и Women Working Age Rural Population не зависимые переменные для первых двух гипотез. В третьей и четвертой гипотезе Labor Force Total являются зависимой переменной, а Fertility Rate, Fertility Rate Urban, Fertility Rate Rural, Death Rate, Death Rate Urban, Death Rate Rural являются независимыми переменными. Для расчета факторов были использованы данные из официального открытого источника информации Бюро национальной статистики с 2007 по 2020 годы. По результатам проведенного анализа три гипотезы были частично приняты, одна отвергнута. Результаты показали незначительное влияние изменения демографической структуры в сельской местности на население трудоспособного возраста, за исключением уровня смертности. Коэффициент рождаемости оказывает положительное влияние на население трудоспособного возраста только в городах. Женское население трудоспособного возраста, хотя и преобладает по количеству мужчин, но оказывает незначительное влияние на рабочую силу. Результаты данного исследования могут использоваться для разработки и совершенствования имеющихся программ и стратегий по управлению демографическими факторами со государственных органов разных уровней, а также в научных исследованиях.

The purpose of this article is to explore the relationship between factors of demographic transition and the demographic dividend in developing countries on the example of Kazakhstan. This literature review made it possible to identify two main factors that indirectly impact economic growth: the working-age population and the labor force. Correlation and regression analyses were conducted to investigate the relationship between these factors, taking into account urban and rural areas. The SPSS program was used to confirm four hypotheses. Where Working Age Total is the dependent variable and Women Working Age Urban Population, Women Working Age Rural Population are independent variables for the first two hypotheses. In the third and fourth hypotheses, Labor Force Total is the dependent variable, and Fertility Rate, Fertility Rate Urban, Fertility Rate Rural, Death Rate, Death Rate Urban, Death Rate Rural are independent variables. Data from the official open source information of the Bureau of National Statistics between 2007-2020 was used. According to the results, three hypotheses were partially accepted, one was rejected. The results showed little effect of changing demographic structure in rural areas on the working-age population, except for mortality rate. The birth rate has a positive impact on the working-age population only in cities. The female population of working age, although predominant in terms of the number, has a negligible effect on the labor force. The results of this study can be used to develop and improve existing programs and strategies for managing demographic factors by  the government at various levels and in science.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.