espEconomy: strategy and practiceEconomy: strategy and practice1997-99672663-550XИнститут экономики10.51176/1997-9967-2022-4-76-91esp-882Research ArticleРЕГИОНАЛЬНАЯ ЭКОНОМИКА И ТЕРРИТОРИАЛЬНОЕ РАЗВИТИЕREGIONAL ECONOMY AND TERRITORIAL DEVELOPMENTПрогнозирование социально-экономического развития регионов в Казахстане: принципы, особенности и недостаткиForecasting of Socio-Economic Development of Regions in Kazakhstan: Principles, Features and Disadvantageshttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3793-1485БалгаринаЛ. А.BalgarinaL. A.

Балгарина Л.А. – PhD докторант

пр. Абая 33а, 010000, Астана

87025212280

Lyudmila A. Balgarina – PhD candidate

33a Abay str., 010000, Astana

87025212280

l.balgarina@apa.kzhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-1803-5458ДжумабаевС. А.JumabayevS. A.

Джумабаев С. А. – кандидат физико-математических наук, профессор

Астана

Serik A. Jumabayev – Candidate of physical and mathematical sciences, Professor

Astana

serik.jumabayev@apa.kzШокамановЮ. К.ShokamanovY. K.

Шокаманов Ю.К. – доктор экономических наук, профессор, кафедра Учет, аудит и статистика

Алматы

Yuriy K.Shokamanov – Doctor of Economy, Professor, Professor of the Department Accounting, Audit and Statistics

Almaty

shokamanov53@mail.ruАкадемия государственного управления при Президенте Республики КазахстанКазахстанAcademy of Public Administration under the President of the Republic of KazakhstanKazakhstanАлматинский гуманитарно-экономический университетКазахстанAlmaty Humanitarian and Economic UniversityKazakhstan2022311220221747691Copyright © Балгарина Л.А., Джумабаев С.А., Шокаманов Ю.К., 20222022Балгарина Л.А., Джумабаев С.А., Шокаманов Ю.К.Balgarina L.A., Jumabayev S.A., Shokamanov Y.K.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://esp.ieconom.kz/jour/article/view/882

Прогноз является важным стратегическим документом, позволяющий планировать развитие региона, определять цели его социально-экономического развития, уточнять программные мероприятия и приоритеты в развитии хозяйственных комплексов. Вопросы составления социально-экономических прогнозов являются актуальными, причем во всем мире. В связи с этим проблемы формирования и эффективного применения прогнозов социально-экономического развития, в том числе на региональном уровне, получили отражение в работах многих исследователей. Цель исследования состоит в рассмотрении процесса разработки прогноза социально-экономического развития в Казахстане на уровне региона, а также определении факторов, отрицательно влияющих на качество таких прогнозов. В рамках исследования авторами использовалась комбинация таких методов исследования как описание, наблюдение, контентанализ, а также системно-аналитический. Описание изучаемого процесса прогнозирования и его подпроцессов проводилось с использованием программного пакета Bizagi Model. Основными источниками информации при проведении исследования стали данные непосредственного наблюдения за процедурой составления прогноза социально-экономического развития на уровне области, а также результаты анализа нормативно-правовых актов, регламентирующих процессы прогнозирования в Республике Казахстан. Для достижения поставленной цели были решены следующие задачи: определена роль прогнозирования в системе управления, перечислены отличия прогноза и плана, названы основные методы и виды прогнозирования, отражены подходы к прогнозированию, описан и проанализирован процесс составления социально-экономического прогноза на уровне области, выявлены «слабые» места и имеющиеся проблемы в процедуре разработке прогноза. Результатом исследования стало выявление ограничений, влияющих на качество разрабатываемых прогнозов и эффективность их использования, предложены пути по их уменьшению. Проведенное исследование способствует лучшему пониманию всего процесса прогнозирования на региональном уровне, а также причин имеющихся проблем при проведении прогнозирования социально-экономического развития на уровне региона.

The forecast is an important strategic document for planning and defining goals and priorities for the region’s development. Socio-economic forecasting is relevant all over the world. For this reason, the issues of formation and practical application of forecasts, including regional ones, are reflected in many research papers. The purpose of the study is to consider the process of developing a forecast of socio-economic development in the regions of Kazakhstan and to identify factors that worsen its quality. The authors used a combination of research methods: description, observation, content analysis and system-analytical. The description of the forecasting process was carried out in the Bizagi Model software package. The main sources of information of the study were the observation of the procedure for making a forecast of the region and the analysis of legal acts regulating the forecasting processes in the Republic of Kazakhstan. To achieve the purpose of the study, the role of forecasting in management was determined, the differences between the forecast and the plan, the primary methods and types of forecasting, approaches to forecasting were listed, the process of making a forecast at the regional level was described and analyzed, “weaknesses” in the forecast development procedure were identified. The result of the study was the identification of limitations affecting the quality and efficiency of the use of the developed forecasts, and ways to reduce them are proposed. The study contributes to understanding the regional forecasting process and the causes of problems arising during its development.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.