espEconomy: strategy and practiceEconomy: strategy and practice1997-99672663-550XИнститут экономики10.51176/1997-9967-2023-1-55-67esp-969Research ArticleРЕГИОНАЛЬНАЯ ЭКОНОМИКА И ТЕРРИТОРИАЛЬНОЕ РАЗВИТИЕREGIONAL ECONOMY AND TERRITORIAL DEVELOPMENTМиграционный взгляд на демографическое развитие города АлматыMigration View on the Demographic Development of the Almaty Cityhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5153-0760РахметоваР. У.RakhmetovaR. U.

д.э.н., профессор, г.н.с.

ул. Шевченко 28, A25K1B0, Алматы

doctor of economics, professor, chief researcher

28 Shevchenko Str., A25K1B0, Almaty

rakhmetova@rambler.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-0533-2728КалиеваС. А.KaliyevaS. A.

э.ғ.д., доцент, бас ғылыми қызметкер

ул. Шевченко 28, A25K1B0, Алматы

doctor of economics, associate professor, chief researcher

28 Shevchenko Str., A25K1B0, Almaty

kalievas_@mail.ruИнститут экономики КН МНВО РКРоссияInstitute of Economics CS MSHE RKRussian Federation2023030420231815567Copyright © Рахметова Р.У., Калиева С.А., 20232023Рахметова Р.У., Калиева С.А.Rakhmetova R.U., Kaliyeva S.A.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://esp.ieconom.kz/jour/article/view/969

Для характеристики демографического развития конкретного региона необходимым является не только определение прироста населения, но и расширение предметной области статистической демографии и проведение исследований с выявлением закономерностей естественного обновления структуры возрастного состава населения. Для полноты исследования использованы методы статистического и математического анализа. Были собраны и проанализированы официальные многолетние статистические данные по г.Алматы. Была разработана математическая модель для определения доли влияния каждого фактора. Обосновано, что демографическое развитие города Алматы не может характеризоваться как процесс воспроизводства. Выявлены причинно-следственные связи прироста населения от миграционных процессов. Отмечено, что в городе Алматы произошли демографические явления, характерные для больших городов современного мира. Обосновано, что рост численности населения г. Алматы не оказывает положительного влияния на демографическое развитие страны, а приводит к негативным последствиям (высокая плотность населения города, инфраструктура, транспортные пробки, временные трудовые мигранты) развития мегаполиса и страны в целом. Значимость результатов проведенного исследования заключается в рекомендациях по разработке и принятию мер по ограничению движения внутренней миграции г.Алматы и направленных на естественное демографическое воспроизводство.

To characterize the demographic development of a particular region, it is necessary not only to determine population growth, but also to expand the subject area of statistical demography and conduct research to identify patterns of natural renewal of the structure of the age composition of the population. For the completeness of the study, methods of statistical and mathematical analysis were used. Official long-term statistical data for Almaty were collected and analyzed. A mathematical model was developed to determine the share of influence of each factor. It is substantiated that the demographic development of the city of Almaty cannot be characterized as a process of reproduction. Causeand-effect relationships of population growth from migration processes are revealed. It is noted that in the city of Almaty there were demographic phenomena typical for large cities of the modern world. It is substantiated that the growth of the population of Almaty does not have a positive impact on the demographic development of the country, but leads to negative consequences (high population density of the city, infrastructure, traffic jams, temporary labor migrants) of the development of the metropolis and the country as a whole. The significance of the results of the study lies in the recommendations for taking measures to limit the movement of internal migration in Almaty and aimed at natural demographic reproduction.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.