ASSESSMENT OF THE GENERAL MACROECONOMIC BALANCE MODEL OF THE EXPORTORIENTED ECONOMIES (ON THE BASIS OF KAZAKHSTANI AND RUSSIA ECONOMIES)
Abstract
This article contains the econometric analysis of usability of the general macroeconomic balance based on the IS-LM model in open economy. The authors also examine the correspondence of the model conclusions concerning macroeconomic policy in the export oriented countries (Russia and Kazakhstan). The quarterly date over the twenty years for Russia and ten years for Kazakhstan are used for this survey.The research is based on the estimations of the behavioral equations such as consumption, investment, net export, monetary demand and balance payment line.The authors identify the peculiarities of interconnection between crucial macroeconomic variables: household expenditures and net disposable income, gross accumulation and interest rate, net export and real exchange rate, money demand and interest rate and income.Primary goods of high export share restricts on the application of the classical monetary tools. Therefore, the influence on consumer and investment behavior via interest rate is poorly performing due to underdevelopment of credit channel of monetary policy transmission.Econometric calculations prove the low capital mobility in Russia and Kazakhstan. The connection between net financial account and interest rate changes is not detected. As a result of the analysis, it is identified that the direct and portfolio investments dynamics is determined by the leading industries’ profitability and exchange rates.These identified features of interconnection impose significant (almost overwhelming) restrictions on applying the IS-LM model in open economy to implement the macroeconomic regulation and forecasting in export oriented countries.
About the Authors
D. B. Kunasheva
АО «Казахская головная архитектурно-строительная академия»
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan
V. N. Sidorenko
Московская школа экономики МГУ им. М.В.Ломоносова
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Y. V. Bayeva
Казахстанский филиал МГУ им. М.В.Ломоносова
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan
References
1. Varhotov T., Koshovec O. Jepistemologicheskij status modelej i myslennyh jeksperimentov v jekonomicheskoj teorii [Epistemological Status of Models and Thought Experiments in Economics]// Voprosy ekonomiki []. 2015. №2. S. 123-124.
2. Leiashvili P. Jekonomiks v tiskah jempirizma i dogmatizma (prichiny zastoja v jekonomicheskoj nauki). M: Direkt-Media, 2013. 62 s.
3. Ajvazjan S. A., Brodskij B. E. Makrojekonometricheskoe modelirovanie: podhody, problemy, primer jekonometricheskoj modeli rossijskoj jekonomiki [On Educating Economists-Statisticians and Economists-Mathematicians: Trends, Problems, Prospects] // Prikladnaja jekonometrika [Аpplied econometrics]. 2006. № 2. S. 75-81.
4. Kravcov M.K., Burdyko N.M., Gaspadarec O.I., Shinkevich N.N., Kartun A.M. Jekonometricheskaja makromodel’ dlja analiza i prognozirovanija vazhnejshih pokazatelej belorusskoj jekonomiki [An Econometric Macroeconomic Model for Analysis and Forecasting of Key Indicators of the Belarusian Economy] // Prikladnaja jekonometrika [Аpplied econometrics]. 2008. № 2(10). S. 21-43.
5. Shul’gin A.G. Optimal’nye pravila valjutnoj i denezhno-kreditnoj politiki v DSGE-modeli, ocenennoj na rossijskih dannyh [Optimal monetary policy rules in DSGE model estimated on Russian data] / A. G. Shul’gin; Nac. issled. un-t «Vysshaja shkola jekonomiki» [National Research University Higher School of Economics]. M.: Izd. dom Vysshej shkoly jekonomiki [Higher School of Economics Publ. House], 2014. 38 s.
6. Ashimov A.A., Sultanov B.T., Borovskij Ju.V., Dil’debaeva Zh.T., Novikov D.A., Nizhegorodcev R.M. Makrojekonomicheskij analiz sostojanija nacional’noj jekonomiki na baze ravnovesnyh regressionnyh modelej i optimizacija parametrov gosudarstvennogo regulirovanija [Macroeconomic analysis of the national economy on the basis of the equilibrium regression modelsand optimizing the parameters of state regulation]// Izvestija Volgogradskogo tehnicheskogo universiteta. Serija Aktual’nye problemy reformirovanija rossijskoj jekonomiki (teorija, praktika, perspektiva). 2010. № 13. S. 139-148.
7. Bekeshova A.Sh, Dil’debaeva Zh.T., Sajlaubekov N.T. Ocenka ravnovesnyh makrojekonomicheskih pokazatelej nacional’noj jekonomiki (na statisticheskih dannyh RK) [Evaluation of equilibrium macroeconomic indicators of the national economy (on statistics RK)]// Vestnik KazNU. Serija jekonomicheskaja. №5 (99). 2013. S. 21-26.
8. Dil’debaeva Zh.T., Sajlaubekov N.T. Makrojekonomicheskij analiz nacional’noj jekonomiki na baze modeli obshhego jekonomicheskogo ravnovesija (na statisticheskih dannyh RK) [Macroeconomic analysis of the national economy on the basis of general equilibrium models (statistical data on RC)] // Vestnik KazNU. Serija jekonomicheskaja. № 3 (103). 2014. C. 15-21.
9. Buklemishev O., Danilov Ju. Jekonomicheskoe liderstvo i «liderskaja renta» [Global Economic Leadership and the «Leadership Rent»]// Mirovaja jekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnoshenija [World Economy and International Relations]. 2015. № 10. S. 5-17.
10. BP Statistical Review of World Energy. June 2016. Available at: http://www.bp.com/statisticalreview
11. Mjenk’ju N.G. Makrojekonomika [Macroeconomics]. Per. s angl. M.: Izd-vo MGU, 1994. 736 s.
12. Tumanova E.A., Shagas N.L. Makrojekonomika. Jelementy prodvinutogo podhoda. Uchebnik. M.: INFRA-M, 2004. 400 s.
13. Zamkov O.O. Jekonometricheskie metody v makrojekonomicheskom analize: kurs lekcij. M.: Izdatel’skij dom GU-VShJe, 2001. / Zamkov O.O. Jekonometricheskie metody v makrojekonomicheskom analize. M.: Dialog-MGU, 1999. S. 110-130.
14. Rukovodstvo po platezhnomu balansu i mezhdunarodnoj investicionnoj pozicii [Balance of payments and international investment position manual] (Shestoe izdanie (RPB6)) - Vashington, okrug Kolumbija. Mezhdunarodnyj Valjutnyj Fond [International Monetary Fund], 2012. 463 s.
15. Platezhnyj balans i vneshnij dolg Respubliki Kazahstan za 2016 god //Nacional’nyj Bank RK [National Bank of Kazakhstan], Maj 2017 g. 192 s.
16. Sinjakov A., Judaeva K. Politika central’nogo banka v uslovijah znachitel’nyh shokov platezhnogo balansa i strukturnyh sdvigov [Central bank policy under significant balance-of-payment shocks and structural shifts]// Voprosy ekonomiki. 2016. №9. S.5- 39.
17. Sinel’nikova-Muryleva E.V. Spros na den’gi: jevoljucija teoreticheskih predstavlenij i jempiricheskie issledovanija (na primere RF). Dissertacija na soiskanie uchenoj stepeni kandidata jekonomicheskih nauk. Moskva, 2012. 222 s.
18. Mishhenko S.V. Vlijanie urovnja monetizacii jekonomiki na dinamiku denezhnoj massy [The impact of the level of monatisation of economy on money supply dinamic] // Jekonomika i banki [Economy and banks]. 2014. № 1. S. 16-24.
19. Chernjavskij D.O. Mukanov N.S. Vnedrenie pravila denezhno-kreditnoj politiki v kvartal’nuju prognosticheskuju model’ Kazahstana [Introducing the Monetary Policy Rule into a Quarterly Predictive Model in Kazakhstan]. Den’gi i kredit [Money and Credit]. №5. 2017. S 40.
20. Glaz’ev S.Ju «O targetirovanii infljacii [On inflation targeting]» // Voprosy ekonomiki. 2015. № 9. S.1-12.
21. Kudrin A. Vlijanie dohodov ot jeksporta neftegazovyh resursov na denezhno-kreditnuju politiku Rossii [The Influence of Oil and Gas Exports on Russia’s Monetary Policy] // Voprosy jekonomiki. 2013. № 3. S.4-19.
Review
For citations:
Kunasheva D.B., Sidorenko V.N., Bayeva Y.V. ASSESSMENT OF THE GENERAL MACROECONOMIC BALANCE MODEL OF THE EXPORTORIENTED ECONOMIES (ON THE BASIS OF KAZAKHSTANI AND RUSSIA ECONOMIES). Economics: the strategy and practice. 2019;14(1):27-40. (In Russ.)
Views: 287
Email this article 