Interrelationship between Migration, Employment and Economic Growth in the United States: A Dynamic Analysis from 1990 to 2022

The study aims to explore the intricate relationships between migration flows, employment dynamics, and economic growth in the United States from 1990 to 2022. Specifically, it assesses the impact of refugee admissions and legal permanent residents on GDP and GDP per capita in both the short and long term. A comprehensive econometric approach was employed, including correlation analysis, regression modeling, and dynamic trend evaluation. The study tested three hypotheses concerning the effects of employment growth on GDP, the distinct impacts of different migration flows, and the influence of these factors on employment rates. The study utilizes data from Statista for employment and migration figures, and GDP data from the World Bank. The analysis revealed a significant negative correlation between employment rates and GDP (r = - 0.701, p < 0.001) and GDP per capita (r = - 0.686, p < 0.001), indicating that declining employment rates are associated with increased economic output. Employment growth, counterintuitively, correlates negatively with GDP, suggesting that other factors such as productivity and technological advancements offset labor market contractions. Key results highlight the differentiated economic contributions of various migrant categories and their implications for policy. The findings underscore the complex and multifaceted nature of migration’s impact on the U.S. economy. While migration generally contributes positively in the long term, short-term challenges, particularly from refugee admissions, can strain economic resources. The study highlights the need for tailored economic and integration policies to maximize the benefits of migration while mitigating its challenges.

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