Sustainable Growth of Central Asian Countries: Opportunities and Prospects

The purpose of the article is to examine the main socio-economic trends in Central Asian countries and to identify prospects and opportunities for achieving sustainable growth goals. The study hypothesizes that the region has the potential for sustainable growth and strengthening its geopolitical position based on the synergy of strengths, strengthening weaknesses, and creating new opportunities. This study uses the methods of structural and logical analysis, descriptive statistics, factor analysis, predictive expert assessments, SWOT analysis of the economies of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, and comparative analysis of investment attractiveness. A comparative analysis of Central Asian countries was conducted at the level of individual countries, the region as a whole, and in comparison, with global averages. Key indicators used included gross domestic product (GDP), GDP per capita, GDP growth rate, unemployment rate, average salary, demographic indicators, expenditures on education, the enrollment rate in higher education, unit costs of research and development, and the human capital index. The results show that in order to strengthen their positions, the Central Asian countries must: ensure a balanced approach to economic and social development in accordance with the Sustainable Development Goals; focus government and business efforts on job creation; ensure the diversification of the national economy for a gradual transition from traditional industries to industries with higher added value. Further research requires expanding the analysis of the development of the industrial and service sectors to understand how transit potential affects the development of the economic structure; it is necessary to use econometric modeling and analysis methods.

1. Agency on Statistics of Tajikistan. (2024). Labor market in the Republic of Tajikistan. Retrieved December 25, 2024 from https://www.stat.tj/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/bozori_mehnat_2023.pdf (In Russ.)

2. Anisimova, E., Ashigali, Z., Telegina, V., & Panicheva, S. (2024). Between East and West. Moscow: Analytical Credit Rating Agency. Retrieved December 25, 2024 from https://www.acra-ratings.ru/upload/iblock/ff7/f5r9w75ak82cqd68l61ykinczi7z4egt/20241218_RSSEA.pdf

3. Asian Development Bank. (2006). Central Asia: Increasing gains from trade through regional cooperation in trade policy, transport, and customs transit. Asian Development Bank. Retrieved December 25, 2024 from https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/29927/central-asia-tra

4. Bureau of National Statistics. (2024). Wages and working conditions. Retrieved December 25, 2024 from https://stat.gov.kz/en/industries/labor-and-income/stat-wags

5. CABAR. (2021). How can the human capital in Central Asian countries be improved ? Retrieved December 25, 2024 from https://cabar.asia/en/how-can-the-human-capital-in-central-asian-countries-be-improved

6. Ibragimov, U., & Ibragimova, D. (2020). Пути повышения транзитного потенциала Центральной Азии: углубление межрегионального сотрудничества [Ways to increase the transit potential of Central Asia: Deepening interregional cooperation]. In Greater Eurasia: Development, Security, Cooperation. Yearbook (pp. 324–329). INION RAS. (In Russ.)

7. International Economics Consulting. (2024). Risk Dashboard. Retrieved December 25, 2024 from https://tradeeconomics.com/risk-dashboard

8. Mackinder, H. (2020). The Geographical Pivot of History. New York: Cosimo Classics

9. Mami, Е. (2024). The Middle Corridor: Trends and Opportunities. Retrieved December 25, 2024 from https://odi.org/en/insights/the-middle-corridor-trends-and-opportunities

10. Migranyan, A. (2016). Особенности демографии в странах Центральной Азии. Часть 1. Социально-демографические показатели стран Центральной Азии [Peculiarities of demography in the countries of Central Asia. Part 1. Socio-demographic indicators of the countries of Central Asia]. Observer, 11(322), 98-108. (In Russ.)

11. Mogilevskii, R. (2020). Labor Market and Technological Development in Central Asia. Report of the Institute of Public Policy and Administration of the University of Central Asia (UCA). Retrieved December 25, 2024 from https://ucentralasia.org/media/cx5p2yas/uca-ippawp58labormarketeng.pdf

12. National Statistical Committee of Kyrgyzstan. (2024). Wages. Retrieved December 25, 2024 from https://stat.gov.kg/en/statistics/trud-i-zarabotnaya-plata

13. Ovezmyradov, B., & Kepbanov, Y. (2021). Human capital and liberalization in Central Asia: comparative perspectives on development (1991 – 2020). Research report in Sociology of Law, 3. Lund University. Retrieved December 25, 2024 from https://lucris.lub.lu.se/ws/portalfiles/portal/101800

14. Oztarsu, M. (2024). Central Asia is partnering with the world on its own terms. https://doi.org/10.59425/eabc.1733392800

15. Pomfret, R. (2025). Power shifts and progress in Central Asia. https://doi.org/10.59425/eabc.1737583200

16. Starr, S. (2015). Lost Enlightenment: The Golden Age of Central Asia from the Arab Conquest to the Time of Tamerlane. Princeton: Princeton University Press

17. Statistics agency of Uzbekistan. (2024). Labor market. Retrieved December 25, 2024 from https://stat.uz/en/official-statistics/labor-market

18. Sultanova, L. (2020). Центральная Азия: экономические коридоры и глобальные цепочки создания стоимости [Central Asia: Economic Corridors and Global Value Chains]. Archive of scientific research, 1(12). Retrieved December 25, 2024 from https://journal.tsue.uz/index.php/archive/article/view/1782 (In Russ.)

19. Tukumov, E. (2023). Регион вступает в новую фазу [The region is entering a new phase]. Retrieved December 25, 2024 from https://tengrinews.kz/article/region-vstupaet-novuyu-fazu-ekspert-nazval-3-stsenariya-1939 (In Russ.)

20. UNDP. (2024). Rethinking cooperation in a polarized world: The Human Development Report 2023–24. UNDP. Retrieved December 25, 2024, from https://hdr.undp.org/system/files/documents/global-report-document/hdr2023-24snapshotru.pdf

21. UNESCO. (2021). Higher education in Central Asia. Central Asia series, ATA-2021/PI/2, 1-5. Retrieved December 25, 2024, from https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000377911 (In Russ.)

22. United Nations. (2024). World population prospects: The 2024 revision. Retrieved December 25, 2024, from https://data.un.org/Data.aspx?d=PopDiv&f=variableID%3A12

23. Vinokurov, E., Ahunbaev, A., Babajanyan, V., Berdigulova, A., Fedorov, K., Kharitonchik, A., Kuznetsov, A., Malakhov, A., Pereboev, V., Usmanov, N., & Zaboev, A. (2022). The Economy of Central Asia: A Fresh Perspective. Reports and Working Papers 22/3. Almaty, Bishkek, Moscow: Eurasian Development Bank.

24. World Bank. (2023). Middle trade and transport corridor. World Bank. Retrieved December 25, 2024 from https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/6248f697aed-4be0f770d319dcaa4ca52-0080062023/original/Middle-Trade-and-Transport-Corridor-World-Bank-FINAL.pdf

25. World Bank. (2025). GDP growth (annual %). Retrieved January 25, 2025 from https://databank.world-bank.org/source/world-development-indicators#

26. Yormirzoev, M. (2023). Human capital and economic growth in Central Asia. Post-Communist Economies, 35, 533-545. https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2023.2196872