Determinants of Agricultural Income: An Empirical Study of Farmers in Northern Kazakhstan

The agricultural sector plays a key role in ensuring economic stability and food security, but the factors determining farm profitability remain a matter of debate. The purpose of the study is to assess the impact of subsidies, farm size and age on the annual income of agricultural enterprises in the North Kazakhstan region. Panel data from 456 farms for 2010-2023 (6354 observations) was used as a database. Methodologically, the work is based on multifactorial regression using a random effects (REM) model and stable standard errors. Using balanced panel data from 2010 to 2023, a multiple regression model with robust standard errors was applied. The results show that the size of the farm has the most significant and statistically significant positive impact on income (𝛽=1,278, p < 0.001), confirming the existence of economies of scale. The impact of subsidies (𝛽= − 0.143, p = 0.789) and farm age (𝛽 = 0.050, p = 0.305) turned out to be statistically insignificant. The results indicate the need to reorient agricultural policy to support effective farm consolidation, improve subsidy allocation mechanisms, and develop targeted programs to help young farmers. Furthermore, the application of the robust standard errors technique, which is rarely used in prior domestic studies, strengthens the methodological reliability of the results. Based on the findings, several policy recommendations are proposed: subsidies should be redirected toward enhancing productivity and innovation, supporting large and efficient farms, and improving financial and institutional mechanisms for young farmers.

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