Түркі республикалары мен Тәжікстандағы ақша аударымдары және экономикалық өсім: Панельдік талдау

Денежные переводы мигрантов являются важным источником внешнего финансирования для развивающихся экономик, однако их влияние на экономический рост остается неоднозначным. Цель исследования заключается в оценке долгосрочного влияния денежных переводов, прямых иностранных инвестиций, открытости торговли и налоговых доходов на реальный ВВП, а также в выявлении причинно-следственных связей между этими переменными в пяти тюркских республиках (Азербайджане, Казахстане, Кыргызстане, Турции и Узбекистане) и Таджикистане за период 2005–2023 гг. Для анализа применены тесты межстрановой зависимости и однородности коэффициентов, панельные тесты единичного корня, тест коинтеграции Дурбина–Хаусмана, оценки FMOLS и DOLS, а также тест панельной причинности Думитреску–Хёрлина. Результаты показали положительную долгосрочную связь денежных переводов с реальным ВВП: коэффициент составил 10,7917 по FMOLS (p = 0,0137) и 3,8556 по DOLS (p = 0,023). Открытость торговли также имеет положительную и статистически значимую долгосрочную связь с реальным ВВП: соответствующие коэффициенты составили 1,1260 и 1,2183 (p = 0,000 в обоих случаях). В то же время коэффициенты прямых иностранных инвестиций оказались отрицательными: −1,7361 по FMOLS (p = 0,051) и −2,2875 по DOLS (p = 0,088). Полученные результаты подтверждают значимую роль денежных переводов в экономической динамике исследуемых стран и указывают на целесообразность совершенствования механизмов их привлечения в формальный финансовый сектор и направления продуктивного использования. Результаты подчеркивают необходимость развития формальных финансовых каналов, повышения эффективности использования денежных переводов и ориентации внешних финансовых потоков на производительные инвестиции и устойчивый экономический рост.

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