Перспективы развития внешней торговли Казахстана со странами всеобъемлющего регионального экономического партнерства

   Исследование посвящено изучению перспектив развития внешней торговли Казахстана со странами Всеобъемлющего регионального экономического партнерства (ВРЭП) путем анализа показателей открытости экономики и применения эконометрических моделей прогнозирования. Актуальность работы обусловлена необходимостью рассмотрения перспектив развития внешнеторговых отношений Казахстана с новым торговым объединением ВРЭП для дальнейшего формирования направлений развития таких отношений на основе принципов доказательной политики, так как результаты, полученные в исследовании, могут послужить основой для принятия государственных управленческих решений в области торговой и таможенной политики. В рамках статьи авторами применена стратегия комбинированных методов исследования с проведением сравнительного анализа результатов использования каждого из них. Так, использованы эконометрические методы прогнозирования Бокса-Дженкинса, экспоненциального сглаживания с применением тестов на проверку их адекватности и валидности. Рассчитаны ошибки прогноза, такие как среднеквадратическая ошибка, средняя абсолютная ошибка и средняя абсолютная ошибка в процентах. Результатом исследования стали прогнозы внешнеторгового оборота Казахстана со странами ВРЭП на краткосрочную перспективу, которые позволили сделать вывод о положительной динамике развития данных торговых отношений. Более точный прогноз представлен на основе использования метода экспоненциального сглаживания, который демонстрирует наименьший размер ошибок и является более простым в применении.

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