The Influence of Demographic Transition Factors on the Demographic Dividends in the Republic of Kazakhstan

The purpose of this article is to explore the relationship between factors of demographic transition and the demographic dividend in developing countries on the example of Kazakhstan. This literature review made it possible to identify two main factors that indirectly impact economic growth: the working-age population and the labor force. Correlation and regression analyses were conducted to investigate the relationship between these factors, taking into account urban and rural areas. The SPSS program was used to confirm four hypotheses. Where Working Age Total is the dependent variable and Women Working Age Urban Population, Women Working Age Rural Population are independent variables for the first two hypotheses. In the third and fourth hypotheses, Labor Force Total is the dependent variable, and Fertility Rate, Fertility Rate Urban, Fertility Rate Rural, Death Rate, Death Rate Urban, Death Rate Rural are independent variables. Data from the official open source information of the Bureau of National Statistics between 2007-2020 was used. According to the results, three hypotheses were partially accepted, one was rejected. The results showed little effect of changing demographic structure in rural areas on the working-age population, except for mortality rate. The birth rate has a positive impact on the working-age population only in cities. The female population of working age, although predominant in terms of the number, has a negligible effect on the labor force. The results of this study can be used to develop and improve existing programs and strategies for managing demographic factors by  the government at various levels and in science.

1. Agency for Strategic planning and reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan Bureau of National statistics – Statistical collections, (2021). [updated July 20, 2022; cited July 25, 2022]. Available: https://www.stat.gov.kz/edition/publication/collection

2. Agrawal, V., Cantor, J. H., Sood, N., & Whaley, C. M. (2021). The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and policy responses on excess mortality (No. w28930). National Bureau of Economic Research https://doi.org/10.3386/w28930

3. Babiak, H., & Mesaksudi, T. (2018). Demographic composition of regional population repair : problems and prospects. Regional Aspects of Development and Placement of Productive Forces of Ukraine: Scientific Journal, 22, 52–55. https://doi.org/10.35774/rarrpsu2017.22.052

4. Billari, F. C., & Sciences, P. (2022). Demography: Fast and Slow. Population and development review, 48(1), 9–30. https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12464

5. Brooks, M. M., Mueller, J. T., & Thiede, B. C. (2021). Rural-urban differences in the labor-force impacts of COVID-19 in the United States. Socius, 7, 23780231211022094. https://doi.org/10.1177/23780231211022094

6. Bureau of National Statistics (2022). [updated July 19, 2022; cited July 30, 2022]. Available: http://www.stat.gov.kz

7. Cruz, M., & Ahmed, S. A. (2018). On the impact of demographic change on economic growth and poverty. World development, 105, 95-106. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.12.018

8. Doker, A. C., Turkmen, A., & Emsen, O. S. (2016). What are the demographic determinants of savings? An analysis on transition economies (1993-2013). Procedia Economics and Finance, 39, 275-283. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(16)30324-0

9. Dribe, M., & Lundh, C. (2011). Cultural dissimilarity and intermarriage. A longitudinal study of immigrants in Sweden 1990–2005. International migration review, 45(2), 297-324. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-7379.2011.00849.x

10. Boubtane, E., Dumont, J. C., & Rault, C. (2016). Immigration and economic growth in the OECD countries 1986–2006. Oxford Economic Papers, 68(2), 340-360. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpw001

11. Golley, J., & Zheng, W. E. I. (2015). Population dynamics and economic growth in China. China Economic Review, 35, 15-32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2015.05.005

12. Hinde, A. (2014). Demographic Methods. Routledge.

13. Johns Hopkins, C. S. S. E. (2021). COVID-19 Map—Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. Consultato il, 19. Avaliable: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/kazakhstan

14. Kalmijn, M., & Van Tubergen, F. (2010). A comparative perspective on intermarriage: Explaining differences among national-origin groups in the United States. Demography, 47(2), 459-479. https://doi.org/10.1353/dem.0.0103

15. Korkmaz, M. (2021). A study over the general formula of regression sum of squares in multiple linear regression. Numerical Methods for Partial Differential Equations, 37(1), 406-421. https://doi.org/10.1002/num.22533

16. Korotayev, A., & Zinkina, J. (2022). Egypt’s 2011 revolution: A demographic structural analysis. In Handbook of Revolutions in the 21st Century (pp. 651-683). Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86468-2_25

17. Marien, M. (2021). Our Common Agenda: Review of Five UN75 Sustainability Reports. Cadmus, 4(5), 42-47.

18. Momota, A., & Futagami, K. (2005). Demographic structure, international lending and borrowing in growing interdependent economies. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 19(1), 135-162. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jjie.2003.12.006

19. Ogawa, N., Mansor, N., Lee, S. H., Abrigo, M. R., & Aris, T. (2021). Population aging and the three demographic dividends in Asia. Asian Development Review, 38(1), 32-67. https://doi.org/10.1162/adev_a_00157

20. Ross, J. (2004). Understanding the Demographic Dividend. Policy Project Note.

21. Samari, G. (2019). Education and fertility in Egypt: Mediation by women’s empowerment. SSMpopulation health, 9, 100488. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssmph.2019.100488

22. Uddin, G. A., Alam, K., & Gow, J. (2016). Population age structure and savings rate impacts on economic growth: Evidence from Australia. EconomicAnalysis and Policy, 52, 23-33. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2016.08.002

23. Van den Broeck, G., & Maertens, M. (2015). Female employment reduces fertility in rural Senegal. PloS one, 10(3), e0122086. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0122086

24. Wei, Z., & Hao, R. (2010). Demographic structure and economic growth : Evidence from China. Journal of Comparative Economics, 38(4), 472–491. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2010.08.002

25. Zhang, H., Zhang, H., & Zhang, J. (2015). Demographic age structure and economic development: Evidence from Chinese provinces. Journal of Comparative Economics, 43(1), 170-185. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2014.07.002

26. Rural women: doubly vulnerable. Ekonomist, (2022). [updated August 18, 2022; cited August 19, 2022] Avaliable: https://ekonomist.kz/kovyazina/uyazvimy-vdvoine/. (In Russ)

27. The unemployment rate in the villages of Kazakhstan reached 4.8%. KazInform, International News Agency. (2022). [updated August 18, 2022; cited August 19, 2022] Avaliable: https://www.inform.kz/ru/uroven-bezraboticy-v-selah-kazahstana-dostig-4-8_a3926439. (In Russ)