Social Consequences of the Growth of Kazakhstan’s Megapolises and Recommendations for Overcoming

The purpose of the article was to study changes in living conditions in megapolises as they grow, identify negative social consequences and develop recommendations for overcoming them. Methods of retrospective analysis, logical and comparative analysis, generalizations, methods of descriptive statistics, index, graphic, methods for assessing the improvement of the housing stock of megacities, the demographic capacity of the city were used. The analysis of changes in living conditions in Kazakhstan’s megacities as they grow is carried out. The social consequences of the growth of megacities are revealed: a decrease in the standard of living of residents of the southern capital; an increase in demand for housing and its higher cost; a decrease in the level of well-being in Almaty; poor environmental conditions, an increase in atmospheric pollution in conditions of high population density; a higher level of mortality of the urban population compared to the rural population during the pandemic; an increase in destructive behavior of young people. Recommendations are given to overcome the negative social consequences of uncontrolled urbanization. The necessity of developing a Strategy for the development of Kazakhstani cities is substantiated. Measures are recommended: to solve the problem of affordable housing for young families, specialists, orphans; to create jobs, modernize transport, communal and social infrastructure, to foster patriotism and social responsibility.

1. Adams, J., Vigor, A., & Robinson, P. (2003). A New Regional Policy for the UK. London. Institute for Public Policy Research.

2. Alibekova, G., Panzabekova, A., Satpayeva, Z., & Abilkayir, N. (2018, August). Sustainable development issues of Almaty as the largest metropolis in Central Asia. In IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science (Vol. 177, No. 1, p. 012010). IOP Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/177/1/012010.

3. Bochko, V.S., & Zacharchuk, E.A. (2020). Individualization of City Development Strategies: Case of Ekaterinburg and Birmingham. Ekonomika regiona, 16(2), 391-405. https://doi.org/10.17059/2020-2-5.

4. Boudeville, J.R., & Montefiore, C.G. (1966). Problems of regional economic planning. Edinburgh: Edinburgh UP.

5. Broekel, T., & Brenner, T. (2011). Regional factors and innovativeness: an empirical analysis of f our German industries. The annals of regional science, 47(1), 169-194. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-009-0364-x.

6. Buhaug, H., & Urdal, H. (2013). An urbanization bomb? Population growth and social disorder in cities. Global Environmental Change, 23(1), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.10.016.

7. Bureau of National Statistics (2022) [cited September 27, 2022]. Available: http://www.stat.gov.kz

8. CRTR. (2021). Long-term demographic forecast 2050. Astana, Center for Human Resources Development. [cited September 27, 2022]. Available: https://iac.enbek.kz/ru/node/1163.

9. Cze, C. (2020). Urbanization as a social phenomenon of globalization transformations of the economy. Sociology, (5), 117-217.

10. ESPAS. (2019). Global Trends to 2030: The future of urbanization and Megacities. ESPAS Ideas Paper Series. [cited September 25, 2022]. Available: https://espas.secure.europarl.europa.eu/orbis/document/global-trends-2030-future-urbanization-andmegacities-0.

11. Filyushkina, D. (2014). Spiritual lumpenization of Russian society: determining factors and social manifestations. Rostov-on-Don: South Federal University.

12. Fujita, M. (1989). Urban economic theory. Cambridge Books.

13. Fujita, M., & Krugman, P. (1995). When is the economy monocentric: von Thunen and Chambertin unified. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 25(4), 505-528. https://doi.org/10.1016/0166-0462(95)02098-F.

14. Fujita, M., & Mori, T. (1997). Structural stability and evolution of urban systems. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 27(4–5), 399-442. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0166-0462(97)80004-X.

15. Fujita, M., Krugman, P., & Venables, A. (2001). The Spatial Economy: Cities, Regions and International Trade. Cambridge, Massachusetts: The MIT Press.

16. Gaidar Institute. (2011). Strategies for Old Industrial Cities: International Experience and Perspectives in Russia. Moscow: Publishing House of the Gaidar Institute.

17. Geyer, H., & Kontuly, T. (1993). Theoretical Foundation of the Concept of Differential Urbanization. International Regional Science Review, 5(2), 157–177. https://doi.org/10.1177/016001769301500202.

18. Gibbs, J. (1963). The Evolution of Population Concentration. Economic Geography, 2, 119–129. https://doi.org/10.2307/142505.

19. Glaeser, E.L. (2009). Green cities, brown suburbs. City Journal, 19(1). [cited September 25, 2022]. Available: https://www.city-journal.org/html/green-cities-brown-suburbs-13143.html.

20. Ellison, G., Glaeser, E.L., & Kerr, W.R. (2010). What Causes Industry Agglomeration? Evidence from Coagglomeration Patterns. American Economic Review, 100(3), 1195-1213. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.100.3.1195.

21. Goldstone, J.A. (2002). Population and Security: How Demographic Change Can Lead to Violent Conflict. Journal of International Affairs, 56(1), 3–21. [cited September 25, 2022]. Available: https://www.jstor.org/stable/24357881.

22. Golubchikov, O., & Makhrova, A. (2013). Factors of unequal development of Russian cities. Bulletin of Moscow University: Series 5 Geography [Vestnik Moskovskogo Universiteta: Seriya 5 Geografiya], (2), 54-60.

23. Kahl, C. (2006). States, Scarcity, and Civil Strife in the Developing. World, Princeton, NJ, Princeton University Press.

24. Kosherbaeva, A. (2018). Analysis of the development of cities in Kazakhstan in the light of managed urbanization. Economics and Statistics, (4), 134-140.

25. Landry, C. (2012). The Creative City: A Toolkit for Urban Innovators. Routledge.

26. Mkrtchyan, N.V., & Karachurina, L.B. (2013). Migration and natural movement of the population of cities and administrative regions of Russia in 1990-2010: key factors of differences. Scientific works: Institute of Economic Forecasting RAS, (11), 95-114.

27. Motta, P. (2020). Urbanization and Sustainability after the COVID-19 Pandemic. The International Journal of Social Quality, 10(1), 1–28. https://doi.org/10.3167/ijsq.2020.100102.

28. Nikulina, Yu. (2010). Urbanizacionnye processy v kontekste sistemnoj transformacii obshchestva. Sociological Almanac, (1), 270-275. (In Russ.).

29. Nurlanova, N. (2016). Goroda kak tochki rosta ekonomicheskogo prostranstva Kazahstana: tendencii i perspektivy razvitiya. Problems of Territory’s Development, 5(85), 201-216. (In Russ.).

30. Nurlanova, N. K., Alzhanova, F. G., & Satpayeva, Z. T. (2021). Quality of urban space as a factor of Almaty’s sustainable economic development. Economics: the strategy and practice, 16(2), 5-20. https://doi.org/10.51176/1997-9967-2021-2-5-20.

31. O’sullivan, A. (1996). Urban economics (Vol. 3). Chicago: Irwin.

32. Perroux, F. (1950). Economic Space: Theory and Applications. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 64(1), 89-104. https://doi:10.2307/1881960.

33. Rigby, D. L., & Essletzbichler, J. (2002). Agglomeration economies and productivity differences in US cities. Journal of Economic Geography, 2(4), 407–432. https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/2.4.407.

34. Rosenthal, S., & Strange, W. (2004). Evidence on the Nature and Scale of Agglomeration Economies in JF Thisse and Henderson, JV. Handbook of Urban and Regional Economics, 4(49), 2119-2171. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0080(04)80006-3.

35. SNiP (2009) SNiP RK 4.01-02- 2009 Water supply. External networks and structures. [Vodosnabzhenie Naruzhnye seti i sooruzheniya]. [cited September 2 7, 2022]. Available: https://www.egfntd.kz/rus/page/NTD_KDS_SNiP.

36. Troshin, A. (1995). Lyumpenizaciya, kak sostavlyayushchaya urbanizacionnyh processov: sociokul’turnye tipy. Urbanization and cultural life of Siberia, materials of the All-Russian scientific and practical conference, 20-22. Biblioteka: Omsk.

37. Wheaton, W.C., & Shishido, H. (1981). Urban concentration, agglomeration economies, and the level of economic development. Economic development and cultural change, 30(1), 17-30. https://doi.org/10.1086/452537.