Пространственные эффекты в контексте регионов Казахстана

Проблема пространственного неравенства регионов Казахстана является актуальной на протяжении многих лет и в последние годы данная проблема усугубилась в связи с социально-экономическими изменениями в регионах, последствиями пандемии COVID-19, негативным влиянием инфляционных процессов, усилением внутренней миграции и других факторов. Целью данного исследования является анализ пространственного неравенства между 16 регионами Казахстана охватывающий временной период с 2001 по 2017 годы. В исследовании использовались следующие научные методы: исторический метод, статистический метод. В процессе исследования был разработан новый класс пространственно-эконометрических моделей, являющихся модификациями пространственной модели Дарбина. Данные модели характеризуются непостоянными коэффициентами при пространственных лагах зависимой и независимых переменных. Оценка моделей осуществлялась на основе сведений о казахстанских регионах, с использованием в качестве зависимой переменной темпа роста регионального внутреннего валового продукта на душу населения. Выводы исследования показывают преимущества модели SDM с фиксированными эффектами по сравнению с альтернативными моделями, что подтверждается результатами оценки с использованием критериев информационного критерия Акаике (AIC) и Байеса (BIC). Согласно оценки модели SDM, увеличение на 1% валового регионального продукта на душу населения в базовом году, приводит к увеличению темпов роста валового регионального продукта на душу населения при прочих равных условиях. Также стоит отметить, что увеличение уровня безработицы на 1% способствует ускорению темпов роста валового регионального продукта на душу населения на 0,451 при прочих равных условиях. Рост расходов государства на 1 единицу в регионе способствует к снижению темпов роста валового регионального продукта на душу населения в сопредельном регионе при прочих равных условиях. Коэффициент пространственного отставания указывает на то, что изменения в показателях внутреннего регионального продукта на душу населения в одном регионе оказывают влияние на изменения внутреннего регионального продукта на душу населения в сопредельном регионе. Результаты исследования свидетельствуют о необходимости использования пространственных весов при оценке региональных регрессионных моделей.

1. Achten, S., & Lessmann, C. (2020). Spatial Inequality, Geography and Economic Activity. World Development, 136(2), 105114. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105114

2. Anderson, K., & Pomfret, R. (2004). Spatial Inequality and Development in Central Asia. WIDER Working Paper Series RP2004-36, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

3. Anselin, L. (1988). Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models. Kluwer Academic, Dordrecht.

4. Aritenang, A.F., & Chandramidi, A.N. (2023). The spatial effects of fiscal decentralization on regional convergence: the case of regions in Indonesia. GeoJournal 88, 2011-2030. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-022-10724-2

5. Barro, R.J., & Sala-i-Martin, X. (2004). Economic growth (2nd edition). The MIT Press Cambridge, London.

6. Beer, C., & Riedl, A. (2012). Modelling spatial externalities in panel data: The Spatial Durbin model revisited. Papers in Regional Science, 91(2), 299-319. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1435-5957.2011.00394.x

7. Brimbetova, N.Zh., Saparbek, N.K., Beknazarova, A.T., & Bukejhanova, T.K. (2022). Poverty of the population and regional differences in social development of Kazakhstan. Bulletin of the University Turan, 3, 108-121. https://doi.org/10.46914/1562-2959-2022-1-3-108-121 (in Russ.)

8. Bureau of National Statistics. (2024). Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Retrieved November 10, 2024 from https://stat.gov.kz/en

9. Burridge, P. (1981). Testing for a Common Factor in a Spatial Autoregression Model. Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 13(7), 795-800. https://doi.org/10.1068/a130795

10. Bürscher, T., & Scherngell, T. (2023). Potentials for reducing spatial inequalities in innovation: A spatial econometric perspective. Growth and Change, 55(4), e70001. https://doi.org/10.1111/grow.70001

11. Chulanova, Z., Brimbetova, N., Satybaldin, A., & Dzhanegizova, A. (2024). Poverty in the Kazakhstan Regions: Assessing the Influence of Key Indicators on Differences in Its Level. Sustainability, 16(16), 6752. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16166752

12. Delprato, M., Chudgar, A., & Frola, A. (2024). Spatial education inequality for attainment indicators in sub-saharan Africa and spillovers effects. World Development, 176, 106522. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.world-dev.2023.106522

13. Dodonov, V.Y. (2024). Ethnic fractionalization and income inequality: the case of Kazakhstan. Problems of the Post-Soviet space, 11(1), 45-60. https://doi.org/10.24975/2313-8920-2024-11-1-45-60 (in Russ.)

14. Doran, J. (2022). The effect of spatial inequality on Nigeria’s development. Routes, 3(2), 85-98.

15. Elhorst, J. P. (2011). Dynamic spatial panels: models, methods, and inferences. Journal of Geographical Systems, 14(1), 5-28. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10109-011-0158-4

16. Eva, M., Cehan, A., Corodescu-Roșca, E., & Bourdin, S. (2022). Spatial patterns of regional inequalities: Empirical evidence from a large panel of countries. Applied Geography, 140, 102638. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2022.102638

17. Ezcurra, R., & Rios, V. (2015). Volatility and Regional Growth in Europe: Does Space Matter? Spatial Economic Analysis, 10(3), 344-368. https://doi.org/10.1080/17421772.2015.1062123

18. Ezcurra, R., & Del Villar, A. (2021). Globalization and spatial inequality: Does economic integration affect regional disparities? The Annals of Regional Science, 67(2), 335-358. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-021-01050-5

19. Fayet, Y., Praud, D., Fervers, B., Ray-Coquard, I., Blay, J. Y., Ducimetiere, F., Fagherazzi, G., & Faure, E. (2020). Beyond the map: evidencing the spatial dimension of health inequalities. International journal of health geographics, 19(1), 46. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12942-020-00242-0

20. Fayziy, S. (2024). Inequality of Opportunity: Case Study of Kazakhstan. International Advances in Economic Research, 30, 421-436. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11294-024-09923-z

21. Floerkemeier, H., & Spatafora, N. (2021). Regional Disparities, Growth, and Inclusiveness. IMF Working Papers, 038. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513569505.001

22. Folmer, H., & Oosterhaven, J. (1979). Spatial inequalities and regional development: A framework. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-3046-4_1

23. Gaubert, C., Kline, P., Vergara, D., & Yagan, D. (2021). Trends in US Spatial Inequality: Concentrating Affluence and a Democratization of Poverty. AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, 111, 520-525. https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20211075

24. Giovannini, A., & Vampa, D. (2020). Towards a new era of regionalism in Italy? A comparative perspective on autonomy referendums. Territory, Politics, Governance, 8(4), 579-597. https://doi.org/10.1080/21622671.2019.1582902

25. Gyuris, F. (2018). Spatial inequalities from an East Central European perspective: Case studies from Hungary. Espaço e Economia, 7(13), 1-7. https://doi.org/10.4000/espacoeconomia.5186

26. Ismagulova, A., & Massakova, S. (2024). Social inequality in Kazakhstan: parameters and indicators. Journal of Economic Research & Business Administration, 149(3), 161-173. https://doi.org/10.26577/be.2024-149-i3-012

27. Han, S. (2022). Spatial stratification and socio-spatial inequalities: the case of Seoul and Busan in South Korea. Humanit Soc Sci Commun 9, 23. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-022-01035-5

28. Higgins, P., Campanera, J., & Nobajas, A. (2014). Quality of life and spatial inequality in London. European Urban and Regional Studies, 21(1), 42-59. https://doi.org/10.1177/0969776412439201

29. Hu, J., Ma, C., & Li, C. (2022). Can Green Innovation Improve Regional Environmental Carrying Capacity? An Empirical Analysis from China. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19(20), 13034. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192013034

30. Ifa, K., Viphindrartin, S., Santoso, E., & Priyono, T. (2024). Spatial dependence and poverty factors: A study of Pantura Regions in East Java Province, Indonesia. Journal of Infrastructure, Policy and Development, 8(7), 4195. https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd.v8i7.4195

31. Jadhav, V., & Viswanathan, B. (2023). Spatial Durbin Model of Regional Incomes in India: The Role of Public, Private and Human Capital. Working Papers, 243, Madras School of Economics, Chennai, India.

32. Jumambayev, S., Dzhulaeva, A., Baimukhanova, S., Ilyashova, G., & Dosmbek, A. (2022). Global Income Inequality - A Case Study of OECD Countries and Kazakhstan. Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe, 25(4), 179-203. https://doi.org/10.18778/1508-2008.25.35

33. Khotiawan, M., Sakti, R.K., & Wahyudi, S.T. (2023). An Analysis of the Effects of Spatial Dependence on Economic Growth Among Regencies and Cities in Java. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan, 24(2), 202-220. https://doi.org/10.23917/jep.v24i2.22109

34. Kilroy, A.F. (2009). Intra-Urban Spatial Inequality: Cities as “Urban Regions”.

35. Kireyeva, A. A., Nurbatsin, A. S. & Khalitova, M. M. (2023). Assessing Inequality of Income Distribution and Education in the Regions of Kazakhstan. Economy of regions, 19(3), 741-752. https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2023-3-10

36. Lee, S., Im, J. & Cho, K. (2024) Understanding spatial inequalities and stratification in transportation accessibility to social infrastructures in South Korea: multi-dimensional planning insights. Scientific Reports, 14, 18445. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-68536-y

37. Liu, H., Wang, L., Wang, J., Ming, H., Wu, X., Xu, G., & Zhang, S. (2024). Multidimensional spatial inequality in China and its relationship with economic growth. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 11(1). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-024-03961-y

38. Lu, S., Guan, X., Yu, D., Deng, Y., & Zhou, L. (2015). Multi-Scale Analysis of Regional Inequality based on Spatial Field Model: A Case Study of China from 2000 to 2012. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 4(4), 1982-2003. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi4041982

39. MacKinnon, D., Béal, V., & Leibert, T. (2024). Rethinking ‘left-behind’ places in a context of rising spatial inequalities and political discontent. Regional Studies, 58(6), 1161-1166. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2023.2291581

40. Newman, J., & Hoole, C. (2024). The intersection of productivity and governance capacity in spatial inequality: the case of England’s devolution periphery. Contemporary Social Science, 19(4), 555-582. https://doi.org/10.1080/21582041.2024.2435440

41. Niembro, A., & Sarmiento, J. (2021). Regional development gaps in Argentina: A multidimensional approach to identify the location of policy priorities. Regional Science Policy & Practice, 13(4), 1297-1327. https://doi.org/10.1111/rsp3.12322

42. Niranjan, R. (2020). Spatial inequality in human development in India - A case study of Karnataka. Sustainable Futures, 2(4), 100024. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sftr.2020.100024

43. Nurlanova, N.K., Alzhanova, F.G., & Brimbetova, N.Zh. (2023). Research of Social Inequality of the Population in the Regions of Kazakhstan. Global Journal of Human-Social Science, 23(C3), 43-54.

44. Nurlanova, N.K., Dnishev, F.M., Alzhanova, F.A. & Saparbek, N.K. (2024). Inequality of Labor Income in Kazakhstan’s Regions: Trends, Causes and Opportunities of Reduction. Economy: strategy and practice, 19(3), 86-102, https://doi.org/10.51176/1997-9967-2024-3-86-102

45. Overman, H.G., & Xu, Х. (2024). Spatial disparities across labour markets. Oxford Open Economics, 3(1), 585-610. https://doi.org/10.1093/ooec/odae005

46. Pace, R. K., & Lesage, J. (2010). Spatial econometrics. Handbook of spatial statistics, 1(1), 245-260.

47. Panzera, D., & Postiglione, P. (2021). The impact of regional inequality on economic growth: a spatial econometric approach. Regional Studies, 56(5), 687-702. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2021.1910228

48. Ponce, P., Yunga, F., Larrea-Silva, J., & Aguirre, N. (2023). Spatial determinants of income inequality at the global level: The role of natural resources. Resources Policy, 84, 103783. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resour-pol.2023.103783

49. Rakymzhanova, S., & Bekbenbetova, B. (2024). Analysis of the main aspects of social protection of the population of Kazakhstan. State audit, 63(2), 141-151. https://doi.org/10.55871/2072-9847-2024-63-2-141-151 (in Russ.)

50. Rodríguez-Pose, A., Bartalucci, F., Kurmanov, B., Rau, G.у, & Nigmetov, K. (2024) Assessing regional inequalities in Kazakhstan through well-being. Asian Development Review, 41(1), 301-333. https://doi.org/10.1142/s0116110524500033

51. Sarkar, S., Cottineau-Mugadza, C., & Wolf, L. J. (2024). Spatial inequalities and cities: A review. Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science, 51(7), 1391-1407. https://doi.org/10.1177/23998083241263422

52. Sermagambet, U., Satpayeva, Z., Smagulova, G., Urban W., & Yessenzhigitova, R. (2022). Socio-economic inequality in Kazakhstani regions: Assessment and impact on regional development management. Problems and Perspectives in Management, 20(3), 487-500. https://doi.org/10.21511/ppm.20(3).2022.39

53. Shifa, M., & Leibbrandt, M. (2022). Spatial inequality in sub-Saharan Africa. African Geographical Review, 43, 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1080/19376812.2022.2099916

54. Temerbulatova, Z., Mukhamediyev, B., Zhidebekkyzy, A., & Bilan, S. (2024). Regional disparities and dual dynamics: Economic growth and income inequality in Kazakhstan. Economics and Sociology, 17(2), 241-255. https://doi.org/10.14254/2071789X.2024/17-2/12

55. Todes, A., & Turok, I. (2017). Spatial inequalities and policies in South Africa: Place-based or people-centred? Progress in Planning, 123, 1-31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.progress.2017.03.001

56. Turkebayeva, K.Т., & Wolff, C. (2022). The Impact of Interregional and Country Inequality on the Dynamics of Economic Growth in Kazakhstan. Economy: strategy and practice, 17(2), 6-16. https://doi.org/10.51176/1997-9967-2022-2-6-16

57. Turok, I., & Visagie, J. (2025). Striking disparities in employment across South Africa: Evidence from a new spatial database. Development Southern Africa, 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1080/0376835X.2025.2456252

58. Vogel, M., & Zwiers, M. (2018). The Consequences of Spatial Inequality for Adolescent Residential Mobility. Social Sciences, 7(9), 164. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci7090164

59. Wu, P., & Liu, M. (2022). A Framework for the Spatial Inequality in Urban Public Facility for Urban Planning, Design and Management. Land, 11(9), 1429. https://doi.org/10.3390/land11091429

60. Xia, H, Yu, H., Wang, S., & Yang, H. (2024). Digital economy and the urban-rural income gap: Impact, mechanisms, and spatial heterogeneity. Journal of Innovation & Knowledge, 9(6), 100505. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jik.2024.100505

61. Zahl-Thanem, A., & Fredrik Rye, J. (2024). Spatial inequality in higher education: a growing urban-rural educational gap? European Sociological Review, 40(6), 1067-1081. https://doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcae015

62. Zhang, X., Gang, Z., & Dong, X. (2020). Effects of Government Healthcare Expenditure on Economic Growth Based on Spatial Durbin Model: Evidence from China. Iranian journal of public health, 49(2), 283-293. https://doi.org/10.18502/IJPH.V49I2.3091