Preview

Economy: strategy and practice

Расширенный поиск

Пространственные эффекты в контексте регионов Казахстана

https://doi.org/10.51176/1997-9967-2025-1-120-135

Аннотация

Проблема пространственного неравенства регионов Казахстана является актуальной на протяжении многих лет и в последние годы данная проблема усугубилась в связи с социально-экономическими изменениями в регионах, последствиями пандемии COVID-19, негативным влиянием инфляционных процессов, усилением внутренней миграции и других факторов. Целью данного исследования является анализ пространственного неравенства между 16 регионами Казахстана охватывающий временной период с 2001 по 2017 годы. В исследовании использовались следующие научные методы: исторический метод, статистический метод. В процессе исследования был разработан новый класс пространственно-эконометрических моделей, являющихся модификациями пространственной модели Дарбина. Данные модели характеризуются непостоянными коэффициентами при пространственных лагах зависимой и независимых переменных. Оценка моделей осуществлялась на основе сведений о казахстанских регионах, с использованием в качестве зависимой переменной темпа роста регионального внутреннего валового продукта на душу населения. Выводы исследования показывают преимущества модели SDM с фиксированными эффектами по сравнению с альтернативными моделями, что подтверждается результатами оценки с использованием критериев информационного критерия Акаике (AIC) и Байеса (BIC). Согласно оценки модели SDM, увеличение на 1% валового регионального продукта на душу населения в базовом году, приводит к увеличению темпов роста валового регионального продукта на душу населения при прочих равных условиях. Также стоит отметить, что увеличение уровня безработицы на 1% способствует ускорению темпов роста валового регионального продукта на душу населения на 0,451 при прочих равных условиях. Рост расходов государства на 1 единицу в регионе способствует к снижению темпов роста валового регионального продукта на душу населения в сопредельном регионе при прочих равных условиях. Коэффициент пространственного отставания указывает на то, что изменения в показателях внутреннего регионального продукта на душу населения в одном регионе оказывают влияние на изменения внутреннего регионального продукта на душу населения в сопредельном регионе. Результаты исследования свидетельствуют о необходимости использования пространственных весов при оценке региональных регрессионных моделей.

Об авторах

А. Р. Керимбаев
Казахский Национальный Университет им. аль-Фараби
Казахстан

PhD.

пр. аль-Фараби 71, Алматы



Е. Б. Букатов
Карагандинский университет Казпотребсоюза
Казахстан

PhD.

ул. Академическая 9, Караганда

87001417765



А. Кудебаева
КИМЭП
Казахстан

PhD, профессор.

пр. Абая 2, Алматы



Л. С. Спанкулова
Казахский Национальный Университет им. аль-Фараби
Казахстан

Д.э.н., профессор.

пр. аль-Фараби 71, Алматы



Список литературы

1. Achten, S., & Lessmann, C. (2020). Spatial Inequality, Geography and Economic Activity. World Development, 136(2), 105114. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105114

2. Anderson, K., & Pomfret, R. (2004). Spatial Inequality and Development in Central Asia. WIDER Working Paper Series RP2004-36, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

3. Anselin, L. (1988). Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models. Kluwer Academic, Dordrecht.

4. Aritenang, A.F., & Chandramidi, A.N. (2023). The spatial effects of fiscal decentralization on regional convergence: the case of regions in Indonesia. GeoJournal 88, 2011–2030. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-022-10724-2

5. Barro, R.J., & Sala-i-Martin, X. (2004). Economic growth (2nd edition). The MIT Press Cambridge, London.

6. Beer, C., & Riedl, A. (2012). Modelling spatial externalities in panel data: The Spatial Durbin model revisited. Papers in Regional Science, 91(2), 299-319. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1435-5957.2011.00394.x

7. Brimbetova, N.Zh., Saparbek, N.K., Beknazarova, A.T., & Bukejhanova, T.K. (2022). Poverty of the population and regional differences in social development of Kazakhstan. Bulletin of the University Turan, 3, 108-121. https://doi.org/10.46914/1562-2959-2022-1-3-108-121 (in Russ.)

8. Bureau of National Statistics. (2024). Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Retrieved November 10, 2024 from https://stat.gov.kz/en

9. Burridge, P. (1981). Testing for a Common Factor in a Spatial Autoregression Model. Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 13(7), 795-800. https://doi.org/10.1068/a130795

10. Bürscher, T., & Scherngell, T. (2023). Potentials for reducing spatial inequalities in innovation: A spatial econometric perspective. Growth and Change, 55(4), e70001. https://doi.org/10.1111/grow.70001

11. Chulanova, Z., Brimbetova, N., Satybaldin, A., & Dzhanegizova, A. (2024). Poverty in the Kazakhstan Regions: Assessing the Influence of Key Indicators on Differences in Its Level. Sustainability, 16(16), 6752. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16166752

12. Delprato, M., Chudgar, A., & Frola, A. (2024). Spatial education inequality for attainment indicators in sub-saharan Africa and spillovers effects. World Development, 176, 106522. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.world-dev.2023.106522

13. Dodonov, V.Y. (2024). Ethnic fractionalization and income inequality: the case of Kazakhstan. Problems of the Post-Soviet space, 11(1), 45-60. https://doi.org/10.24975/2313-8920-2024-11-1-45-60 (in Russ.)

14. Doran, J. (2022). The effect of spatial inequality on Nigeria’s development. Routes, 3(2), 85-98.

15. Elhorst, J. P. (2011). Dynamic spatial panels: models, methods, and inferences. Journal of Geographical Systems, 14(1), 5-28. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10109-011-0158-4

16. Eva, M., Cehan, A., Corodescu-Roșca, E., & Bourdin, S. (2022). Spatial patterns of regional inequalities: Empirical evidence from a large panel of countries. Applied Geography, 140, 102638. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2022.102638

17. Ezcurra, R., & Rios, V. (2015). Volatility and Regional Growth in Europe: Does Space Matter? Spatial Economic Analysis, 10(3), 344-368. https://doi.org/10.1080/17421772.2015.1062123

18. Ezcurra, R., & Del Villar, A. (2021). Globalization and spatial inequality: Does economic integration affect regional disparities? The Annals of Regional Science, 67(2), 335-358. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-021-01050-5

19. Fayet, Y., Praud, D., Fervers, B., Ray-Coquard, I., Blay, J. Y., Ducimetiere, F., Fagherazzi, G., & Faure, E. (2020). Beyond the map: evidencing the spatial dimension of health inequalities. International journal of health geographics, 19(1), 46. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12942-020-00242-0

20. Fayziy, S. (2024). Inequality of Opportunity: Case Study of Kazakhstan. International Advances in Economic Research, 30, 421-436. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11294-024-09923-z

21. Floerkemeier, H., & Spatafora, N. (2021). Regional Disparities, Growth, and Inclusiveness. IMF Working Papers, 038. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513569505.001

22. Folmer, H., & Oosterhaven, J. (1979). Spatial inequalities and regional development: A framework. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-3046-4_1

23. Gaubert, C., Kline, P., Vergara, D., & Yagan, D. (2021). Trends in US Spatial Inequality: Concentrating Affluence and a Democratization of Poverty. AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, 111, 520-525. https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20211075

24. Giovannini, A., & Vampa, D. (2020). Towards a new era of regionalism in Italy? A comparative perspective on autonomy referendums. Territory, Politics, Governance, 8(4), 579–597. https://doi.org/10.1080/21622671.2019.1582902

25. Gyuris, F. (2018). Spatial inequalities from an East Central European perspective: Case studies from Hungary. Espaço e Economia, 7(13), 1-7. http://dx.doi.org/10.4000/espacoeconomia.5186

26. Ismagulova, A., & Massakova, S. (2024). Social inequality in Kazakhstan: parameters and indicators. Journal of Economic Research & Business Administration, 149(3), 161-173. https://doi.org/10.26577/be.2024-149-i3-012

27. Han, S. (2022). Spatial stratification and socio-spatial inequalities: the case of Seoul and Busan in South Korea. Humanit Soc Sci Commun 9, 23. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-022-01035-5

28. Higgins, P., Campanera, J., & Nobajas, A. (2014). Quality of life and spatial inequality in London. European Urban and Regional Studies, 21(1), 42-59. https://doi.org/10.1177/0969776412439201

29. Hu, J., Ma, C., & Li, C. (2022). Can Green Innovation Improve Regional Environmental Carrying Capacity? An Empirical Analysis from China. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19(20), 13034. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192013034

30. Ifa, K., Viphindrartin, S., Santoso, E., & Priyono, T. (2024). Spatial dependence and poverty factors: A study of Pantura Regions in East Java Province, Indonesia. Journal of Infrastructure, Policy and Development, 8(7), 4195. https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd.v8i7.4195

31. Jadhav, V., & Viswanathan, B. (2023). Spatial Durbin Model of Regional Incomes in India: The Role of Public, Private and Human Capital. Working Papers, 243, Madras School of Economics, Chennai, India.

32. Jumambayev, S., Dzhulaeva, A., Baimukhanova, S., Ilyashova, G., & Dosmbek, A. (2022). Global Income Inequality – A Case Study of OECD Countries and Kazakhstan. Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe, 25(4), 179-203. https://doi.org/10.18778/1508-2008.25.35

33. Khotiawan, M., Sakti, R.K., & Wahyudi, S.T. (2023). An Analysis of the Effects of Spatial Dependence on Economic Growth Among Regencies and Cities in Java. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan, 24(2), 202-220. https://doi.org/10.23917/jep.v24i2.22109

34. Kilroy, A.F. (2009). Intra-Urban Spatial Inequality: Cities as “Urban Regions”.

35. Kireyeva, A. A., Nurbatsin, A. S. & Khalitova, M. M. (2023). Assessing Inequality of Income Distribution and Education in the Regions of Kazakhstan. Economy of regions, 19(3), 741-752. https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2023-3-10

36. Lee, S., Im, J. & Cho, K. (2024) Understanding spatial inequalities and stratification in transportation accessibility to social infrastructures in South Korea: multi-dimensional planning insights. Scientific Reports, 14, 18445. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-68536-y

37. Liu, H., Wang, L., Wang, J., Ming, H., Wu, X., Xu, G., & Zhang, S. (2024). Multidimensional spatial inequality in China and its relationship with economic growth. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 11(1). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-024-03961-y

38. Lu, S., Guan, X., Yu, D., Deng, Y., & Zhou, L. (2015). Multi-Scale Analysis of Regional Inequality based on Spatial Field Model: A Case Study of China from 2000 to 2012. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 4(4), 1982-2003. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi4041982

39. MacKinnon, D., Béal, V., & Leibert, T. (2024). Rethinking ‘left-behind’ places in a context of rising spatial inequalities and political discontent. Regional Studies, 58(6), 1161–1166. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2023.2291581

40. Newman, J., & Hoole, C. (2024). The intersection of productivity and governance capacity in spatial inequality: the case of England’s devolution periphery. Contemporary Social Science, 19(4), 555-582. https://doi.org/10.1080/21582041.2024.2435440

41. Niembro, A., & Sarmiento, J. (2021). Regional development gaps in Argentina: A multidimensional approach to identify the location of policy priorities. Regional Science Policy & Practice, 13(4), 1297-1327. https://doi.org/10.1111/rsp3.12322

42. Niranjan, R. (2020). Spatial inequality in human development in India - A case study of Karnataka. Sustainable Futures, 2(4), 100024. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sftr.2020.100024

43. Nurlanova, N.K., Alzhanova, F.G., & Brimbetova, N.Zh. (2023). Research of Social Inequality of the Population in the Regions of Kazakhstan. Global Journal of Human-Social Science, 23(C3), 43-54.

44. Nurlanova, N.K., Dnishev, F.M., Alzhanova, F.A. & Saparbek, N.K. (2024). Inequality of Labor Income in Kazakhstan’s Regions: Trends, Causes and Opportunities of Reduction. Economy: strategy and practice, 19(3), 86-102, https://doi.org/10.51176/1997-9967-2024-3-86-102

45. Overman, H.G., & Xu, Х. (2024). Spatial disparities across labour markets. Oxford Open Economics, 3(1), 585-610. https://doi.org/10.1093/ooec/odae005

46. Pace, R. K., & Lesage, J. (2010). Spatial econometrics. Handbook of spatial statistics, 1(1), 245-260.

47. Panzera, D., & Postiglione, P. (2021). The impact of regional inequality on economic growth: a spatial econometric approach. Regional Studies, 56(5), 687–702. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2021.1910228

48. Ponce, P., Yunga, F., Larrea-Silva, J., & Aguirre, N. (2023). Spatial determinants of income inequality at the global level: The role of natural resources. Resources Policy, 84, 103783. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resour-pol.2023.103783

49. Rakymzhanova, S., & Bekbenbetova, B. (2024). Analysis of the main aspects of social protection of the population of Kazakhstan. State audit, 63(2), 141-151. https://doi.org/10.55871/2072-9847-2024-63-2-141-151 (in Russ.)

50. Rodríguez-Pose, A., Bartalucci, F., Kurmanov, B., Rau, G.у, & Nigmetov, K. (2024) Assessing regional inequalities in Kazakhstan through well-being. Asian Development Review, 41(1), 301-333. https://doi.org/10.1142/s0116110524500033

51. Sarkar, S., Cottineau-Mugadza, C., & Wolf, L. J. (2024). Spatial inequalities and cities: A review. Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science, 51(7), 1391-1407. https://doi.org/10.1177/23998083241263422

52. Sermagambet, U., Satpayeva, Z., Smagulova, G., Urban W., & Yessenzhigitova, R. (2022). Socio-economic inequality in Kazakhstani regions: Assessment and impact on regional development management. Problems and Perspectives in Management, 20(3), 487-500. https://doi.org/10.21511/ppm.20(3).2022.39

53. Shifa, M., & Leibbrandt, M. (2022). Spatial inequality in sub-Saharan Africa. African Geographical Review, 43, 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1080/19376812.2022.2099916

54. Temerbulatova, Z., Mukhamediyev, B., Zhidebekkyzy, A., & Bilan, S. (2024). Regional disparities and dual dynamics: Economic growth and income inequality in Kazakhstan. Economics and Sociology, 17(2), 241-255. https://doi.org/10.14254/2071789X.2024/17-2/12

55. Todes, A., & Turok, I. (2017). Spatial inequalities and policies in South Africa: Place-based or people-centred? Progress in Planning, 123, 1-31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.progress.2017.03.001

56. Turkebayeva, K.Т., & Wolff, C. (2022). The Impact of Interregional and Country Inequality on the Dynamics of Economic Growth in Kazakhstan. Economy: strategy and practice, 17(2), 6-16. https://doi.org/10.51176/1997-9967-2022-2-6-16

57. Turok, I., & Visagie, J. (2025). Striking disparities in employment across South Africa: Evidence from a new spatial database. Development Southern Africa, 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1080/0376835X.2025.2456252

58. Vogel, M., & Zwiers, M. (2018). The Consequences of Spatial Inequality for Adolescent Residential Mobility. Social Sciences, 7(9), 164. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci7090164

59. Wu, P., & Liu, M. (2022). A Framework for the Spatial Inequality in Urban Public Facility for Urban Planning, Design and Management. Land, 11(9), 1429. https://doi.org/10.3390/land11091429

60. Xia, H, Yu, H., Wang, S., & Yang, H. (2024). Digital economy and the urban–rural income gap: Impact, mechanisms, and spatial heterogeneity. Journal of Innovation & Knowledge, 9(6), 100505. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jik.2024.100505

61. Zahl-Thanem, A., & Fredrik Rye, J. (2024). Spatial inequality in higher education: a growing urban-rural educational gap? European Sociological Review, 40(6), 1067-1081. https://doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcae015

62. Zhang, X., Gang, Z., & Dong, X. (2020). Effects of Government Healthcare Expenditure on Economic Growth Based on Spatial Durbin Model: Evidence from China. Iranian journal of public health, 49(2), 283-293. https://doi.org/10.18502/IJPH.V49I2.3091


Рецензия

Для цитирования:


Керимбаев А.Р., Букатов Е.Б., Кудебаева А., Спанкулова Л.С. Пространственные эффекты в контексте регионов Казахстана. Economy: strategy and practice. 2025;20(1):120-135. https://doi.org/10.51176/1997-9967-2025-1-120-135

For citation:


Kerimbayev A.R., Bukatov Y.B., Kudebayeva A., Spankulova L.S. Spatial Effects in the Context of Kazakhstan’s Regions. Economy: strategy and practice. 2025;20(1):120-135. https://doi.org/10.51176/1997-9967-2025-1-120-135

Просмотров: 241


Creative Commons License
Контент доступен под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International.


ISSN 1997-9967 (Print)
ISSN 2663-550X (Online)