Пространственные эффекты в контексте регионов Казахстана

Проблема пространственного неравенства регионов Казахстана является актуальной на протяжении многих лет и в последние годы данная проблема усугубилась в связи с социально-экономическими изменениями в регионах, последствиями пандемии COVID-19, негативным влиянием инфляционных процессов, усилением внутренней миграции и других факторов. Целью данного исследования является анализ пространственного неравенства между 16 регионами Казахстана охватывающий временной период с 2001 по 2017 годы. В исследовании использовались следующие научные методы: исторический метод, статистический метод. В процессе исследования был разработан новый класс пространственно-эконометрических моделей, являющихся модификациями пространственной модели Дарбина. Данные модели характеризуются непостоянными коэффициентами при пространственных лагах зависимой и независимых переменных. Оценка моделей осуществлялась на основе сведений о казахстанских регионах, с использованием в качестве зависимой переменной темпа роста регионального внутреннего валового продукта на душу населения. Выводы исследования показывают преимущества модели SDM с фиксированными эффектами по сравнению с альтернативными моделями, что подтверждается результатами оценки с использованием критериев информационного критерия Акаике (AIC) и Байеса (BIC). Согласно оценки модели SDM, увеличение на 1% валового регионального продукта на душу населения в базовом году, приводит к увеличению темпов роста валового регионального продукта на душу населения при прочих равных условиях. Также стоит отметить, что увеличение уровня безработицы на 1% способствует ускорению темпов роста валового регионального продукта на душу населения на 0,451 при прочих равных условиях. Рост расходов государства на 1 единицу в регионе способствует к снижению темпов роста валового регионального продукта на душу населения в сопредельном регионе при прочих равных условиях. Коэффициент пространственного отставания указывает на то, что изменения в показателях внутреннего регионального продукта на душу населения в одном регионе оказывают влияние на изменения внутреннего регионального продукта на душу населения в сопредельном регионе. Результаты исследования свидетельствуют о необходимости использования пространственных весов при оценке региональных регрессионных моделей.

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