Орталық Азия мен Кавказ елдеріндегі бейресми экономиканың даму факторлары

Неформальная экономическая деятельность создает значительные трудности для фискальной устойчивости, эффективности регулирования и инклюзивного развития в регионе. Цель данного исследования – выявить и проанализировать ключевые факторы, влияющие на уровень неформальной экономики в странах Центральной Азии и Кавказа. Эмпирическая база основана на панельных данных по шести странам (Казахстан, Кыргызстан, Таджикистан, Азербайджан, Армения и Грузия), собранных из статистики Всемирного банка и МВФ. В качестве метода использована панельная регрессионная модель со случайными эффектами, учитывающая влияние макроэкономических и институциональных переменных. Результаты показали, что рост ВВП на душу населения статистически значимо сокращает размеры неформальной экономики (коэффициент – 0,00026, p < 0,001), подтверждая обратную зависимость между доходом и теневым сектором. Финансовое развитие оказывает сильное отрицательное влияние          (–13,43, p < 0,001), подчеркивая роль инфраструктуры и цифровых финансов в формализации. Урбанизация проявляет двойственный эффект: на ранних стадиях способствует росту неформальной занятости, однако в зрелых городских системах снижает её уровень (–0,41, p < 0,001). Открытость торговли, напротив, положительно коррелирует с неформальной экономикой (+0,019, p < 0,001), что указывает на риски либерализации без сопутствующей цифровизации таможенных процедур. Полученные результаты подтверждают необходимость реализации целенаправленных государственных мер по формализации экономики через цифровую налоговую инфраструктуру, расширение финансовой доступности и упрощение процедур регистрации бизнеса. Будущие исследования могут быть направлены на изучение налоговых искажений и неравенства в распределении богатства как факторов, поддерживающих неформальный сектор.

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