Цифрлық шешімдерді қолдауға арналған құралдарды пайдалана отырып, демографиялық өсім жағдайында Қазақстандағы білім беру инфрақұрылымын жоспарлау

Қазақстандағы жедел және біркелкі емес демографиялық өсім мектепке дейінгі ұйымдар мен бірінші сыныптарға деген сұраныстың кеңістіктік тұрғыдан әркелкі динамикасын қалыптастырып отыр, бұл өз кезегінде ілгерілей жоспарлауды қажет етеді. Зерттеудің мақсаты – демографиялық өсімнің мектепке дейінгі және бастауыш білім беру инфрақұрылымына ықпалын талдау, орындарға деген сұранысты когорттық-жастық әдіс негізінде болжау және инфрақұрылымдық тапшылықтың алдын алу үшін нысаналы ұсыныстар әзірлеу. Зерттеу барысында мектептердің «сыйымдылығын» есепке алмастан, өңірлік қажеттіліктерді бағалау үшін когорттық-жас құрылымына негізделген болжау әдісі геоақпараттық жүйелер (ГАЖ) мен BI-визуализациямен біріктіре қолданылды. 2029 жылға қарай мектепке дейінгі жастағы балалар санының көбейуі негізінен Қазақстанның оңтүстік және батыс өңірлерінде күтіліп отыр, бұл мектепке дейінгі білім беру ұйымдары желісін кеңейту қажеттігін көрсетеді. 2030 жылға қарай бірінші сыныпқа қабылданатын оқушылардың ең жоғары саны Алматы облысында (шамамен 5,8 мың), Қызылорда облысында (шамамен 5,4 мың) және Шымкент қаласында (шамамен 5,9 мың) болатыны болжанып отыр. Регрессиялық талдау туу деңгейінің (β=0,48; p<0,01) және көші-қонның (β=0,31; p<0,05) инфрақұрылымдық жүктемеге елеулі ықпалын растады. Алынған нәтижелер қосымша орындарды кезең-кезеңімен ашу, кадрлық қамтамасыз етуді жоспарлау, ресурстар мен субсидияларды нысаналы бөлу, сондай-ақ құрылыс жоспарларын демографиялық болжамдармен үйлестіру үшін негіз бола алады. Бұл өз кезегінде білімге қолжетімділікті арттырып, өңірлік жүйелердің тұрақтылығын күшейтуге ықпал етеді.

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