External Migration of the Working-Age Population in Times of Geopolitical Crisis: The Case of Almaty

The research aims to identify changes in external migration of the working-age population of Almaty in the context of geopolitical instability, starting from 2022. The research methodology is based on a quantitative approach and employs the following analytical methods: descriptive statistics, comparative analysis of key indicators (number of arrivals, emigrants, share of migrants with higher education) before and after 2022, and difference-in-differences. The source database of research is analytical reports from international organisations (UNHCR, IOM, World Bank, OSCE) and official statistics from the Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2000–2023, including dynamic tables on external migration by country, age, gender, and education. The findings show that since 2022, Almaty has transitioned from stable emigration to active immigration, primarily of skilled specialists from Russia. In 2023, the influx of migrants exceeded the outflow by 6.5 times, and their total number increased by 194.6% compared to the previous year. For the first time in 24 years, an influx of specialists with higher education was recorded, especially from Russia and the Baltic countries. More than 60% of immigrants had higher or secondary specialized education. The most significant increase was recorded among specialists in technical (27.5%), economic (19.3%) and pedagogical (17.8%) fields. The factors that contributed to this reversal are identified, including regional instability and the attractiveness of Almaty. The application of the results consists of substantiating recommendations for state migration policy: developing mechanisms for integrating skilled migrants, digital monitoring of flows, etc.

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