Влияние развития человеческого капитала на экономический рост в Нигерии

Развитие человеческого капитала рассматривается как один из ключевых факторов устойчивого экономического роста, однако для Нигерии вопрос о сравнительном влиянии государственных расходов на здравоохранение и образование в разрезе текущих и капитальных затрат остается недостаточно изученным. Целью данного исследования является оценка влияния развития человеческого капитала на экономический рост в Нигерии. Методологическую основу составляет модель авторегрессии с распределенными лагами (ARDL), позволяющая оценить краткосрочные и долгосрочные эффекты между переменными при смешанном порядке их интеграции. Эмпирическая база охватывает годовые данные по Нигерии за 1970–2024 гг. по темпу роста ВВП, государственным текущим расходам на здравоохранение, государственным капитальным расходам на здравоохранение, государственным текущим расходам на образование и государственным капитальным расходам на образование. Результаты показали, что переменная экономического роста стационарна на уровне, тогда как остальные переменные стационарны в первых разностях, что подтверждает применимость ARDL-подхода. Долгосрочные оценки ARDL показали, что текущие расходы на образование оказывают положительное и статистически значимое влияние на экономический рост (β = 0,039955; p = 0,0067), как и капитальные расходы на образование (β = 0,072462; p = 0,0030), тогда как влияние расходов на здравоохранение оказалось статистически незначимым: для капитальных расходов β = -0,03087 (p = 0,6185), для текущих расходов β = -0,06336 (p = 0,1414). Полученные результаты показывают, что наибольший вклад в экономический рост Нигерии вносят именно образовательные расходы, особенно капитальные вложения в образовательную инфраструктуру. 

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