Monetary Policy and Its Impact on Consumer Spending and Poverty in Kazakhstan

Given the high external volatility and structural vulnerability of the Kazakh economy, there is an increasing need to assess the macroeconomic and social effects of monetary policy. The purpose of this study is to study the relationship between monetary policy, consumer demand, poverty and income inequality in Kazakhstan during the crisis and post-crisis periods. The empirical analysis is based on quarterly macroeconomic data for 2006-2023 and annual social indicators for 2001-2023. Time series models with lag structures and multiple linear regression were used to evaluate transmission mechanisms. The results show that an increase in the base rate has a statistically significant disinflationary effect with a lag of two quarters (coefficient -0.059; p < 0.01) and reduces economic growth with a lag of three quarters (coefficient -0.030; p < 0.01). Economic growth has a positive effect on consumption (coefficient 1,093; p < 0.05), while inflation has a restraining effect (coefficient -0.871; p < 0.10). The results obtained indicate that the influence of monetary policy on social indicators is mainly indirect and is implemented through the channels of inflation, economic growth and income dynamics, which justifies the need for coordination of monetary and fiscal instruments to achieve the goals of inclusive development. The findings of this study provide policy makers with valuable information for developing a balanced monetary policy that simultaneously ensures macroeconomic stability and promotes inclusive social development. 

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