Оценка рисков углеродного перехода в промышленной экономике Казахстана

Переход к низкоуглеродной экономике усиливает давление на промышленные компании, особенно в ресурсозависимых странах, где значительная часть производства, экспорта и инвестиций связана с углеродоемкими секторами. Цель статьи заключается в оценке рисков углеродного перехода в промышленной экономике Казахстана и определить основные факторы, влияющие на уровень углеродного риска предприятий. Методологическая основа исследования включает расчет композитного индекса углеродного риска (CRI), корреляционный анализ, панельную регрессию с фиксированными эффектами, а также построение матрицы рисков и возможностей углеродного перехода. Эмпирическая база исследования охватывает период 2011–2025 гг. и включает данные Бюро национальной статистики РК, Министерства энергетики РК, отчетов международных организаций, а также годовые и ESG-отчеты 12 крупных промышленных компаний Казахстана. Результаты показывают, что за 2011–2025 гг. индекс CRI снизился с 0,72 до 0,53, а углеродоемкость промышленности сократилась на 18,4%. Панельная регрессия показала, что основными факторами углеродного риска являются углеродоемкость производства (β=0,614; p<0,001), устаревшее оборудование (β=0,441; p<0,01) и зеленое финансирование (β=–0,383; p<0,01). Модель объясняет 71,2% внутрефирменной вариации CRI. Наибольшее снижение риска отмечено в электроэнергетике (-31,8%), наименьшее в горнодобывающем секторе (-8,8%).Полученные результаты подтверждают необходимость технологической модернизации, расширения зеленого финансирования и разработки отраслевых механизмов управления рисками углеродного перехода.

1. Aghion, P., Dechezleprêtre, A., Hémous, D., Martin, R., & Van Reenen, J. (2016). Carbon taxes, path dependency, and directed technical change: Evidence from the auto industry. Journal of Political Economy, 124(1), 1–51. https://doi.org/10.1086/684581

2. Aldy, J. E., & Stavins, R. N. (2012). The promise and problems of pricing carbon: Theory and experience. Journal of Environment & Development, 21(2), 152–180. https://doi.org/10.1177/1070496512442508

3. Bai, J., & Ru, H. (2024). Carbon emissions trading and environmental protection: International evidence. Management Science, 70(7), 4593–4603. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.03143

4. Bolton, P., & Kacperczyk, M. (2021). Do investors care about carbon risk? Journal of Financial Economics, 142(2), 517–549. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.05.008

5. Christensen, D. M., Serafeim, G., & Sikochi, A. (2022). Why is corporate virtue in the eye of the beholder? The case of ESG ratings. The Accounting Review, 97(1), 147–175. https://doi.org/10.2308/TAR-2019-0506

6. Dang, C., Li, Z., & Yang, C. (2018). Measuring firm size in empirical corporate finance. Journal of Banking & Finance, 86, 159–176. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2017.09.006

7. Dechezleprêtre, A., Nachtigall, D., & Venmans, F. (2023). The joint impact of the EU ETS on carbon emissions and economic performance. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 118, Article 102758. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2022.102758

8. Dietz, S., Bowen, A., Dixon, C., & Gradwell, P. (2016). Climate value at risk of global financial assets. Nature Climate Change, 6, 676–679. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2972

9. Dietz, S., & Stern, N. (2015). Endogenous growth, convexity of damage and climate risk: How Nordhaus' framework supports deep cuts in carbon emissions. The Economic Journal, 125(583), 574–620. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12188

10. Flammer, C. (2021). Corporate green bonds. Journal of Financial Economics, 142(2), 499–516. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.01.010

11. Flammer, C., Toffel, M. W., & Viswanathan, K. (2021). Shareholder activism and firms' voluntary disclosure of climate change risks. Strategic Management Journal, 42(10), 1850–1879. https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.3313

12. Frankel, J. A. (2010). The natural resource curse: A survey (NBER Working Paper No. 15836). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w15836

13. Friede, G., Busch, T., & Bassen, A. (2015). ESG and financial performance: Aggregated evidence from more than 2000 empirical studies. Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, 5(4), 210–233. https://doi.org/10.1080/20430795.2015.1118917

14. Green, J. F. (2021). Does carbon pricing reduce emissions? A review of ex-post analyses. Environmental Research Letters, 16(4), Article 043004. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abdae9

15. Grubb, M., Jordan, N. D., Hertwich, E., Neuhoff, K., Das, K., Bandyopadhyay, K. R., van Asselt, H., Sato, M., Wang, R., Pizer, W. A., & Oh, H. (2022). Carbon leakage, consumption, and trade. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 47, 753–795. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-120820-053625

16. Hausman, J. A. (1978). Specification tests in econometrics. Econometrica, 46(6), 1251–1271. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913827

17. Hong, H., Karolyi, G. A., & Scheinkman, J. A. (2020). Climate finance. The Review of Financial Studies, 33(3), 1011–1023. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhz146

18. Hossain, A. T., & Masum, A. A. (2022). Does corporate social responsibility help mitigate firm-level climate change risk? Finance Research Letters, 47, Article 102791. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.102791

19. Howie, P., Gupta, S., Park, H., & Akhmetov, D. (2020). Evaluating policy success of emissions trading schemes in emerging economies: Comparing the experiences of Korea and Kazakhstan. Climate Policy, 20(5), 577–592. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2020.1751030

20. Huynh, T. D., & Xia, Y. (2021). Climate change news risk and corporate bond returns. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 56(6), 1985–2009. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022109020000757

21. IEA. (2021). Net zero by 2050: A roadmap for the global energy sector. International Energy Agency. https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050

22. IMF. (2024). Republic of Kazakhstan: Financial sector assessment program: Technical note on climate-related risks and financial stability. IMF Staff Country Reports, 2024(96). https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400273629.002

23. IPCC. (2023). Climate change 2022: Mitigation of climate change: Working Group III contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157926

24. Kahn, M. E., Mohaddes, K., Ng, R. N. C., Pesaran, M. H., Raissi, M., & Yang, J.-C. (2021). Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: A cross-country analysis. Energy Economics, 104, 105624. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105624

25. Karatayev, M., & Hall, S. (2020). Establishing and comparing energy security trends in resource-rich exporting nations (Russia and the Caspian Sea region). Resources Policy, 68, 101746. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101746

26. Kurbanova, K., Romanenko, S., & Mukhanova, G. (2024). The digital future of financial instruments in advancing the green economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Journal of Economic Research & Business Administration, 147(1), 104–117. https://doi.org/10.26577/jerba202414719

27. Mbanyele, W., & Muchenje, L. T. (2022). Climate change exposure, risk management and corporate social responsibility: Cross-country evidence. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 66, 100771. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mulfin.2022.100771

28. Pedersen, L. H., Fitzgibbons, S., & Pomorski, L. (2021). Responsible investing: The ESG-efficient frontier. Journal of Financial Economics, 142(2), 572–597. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2020.11.001

29. Sansyzbayev, A. B., Mukhametkaliyeva, M. A., & Mukan, M. M. (2025). Analysis of carbon storage and economic value of different land use types in Kazakhstan (2001–2020). Central Asian Economic Review, 2(161), 79–89. https://doi.org/10.52821/2789-4401-2025-2-79-89

30. Sautner, Z., Van Lent, L., Vilkov, G., & Zhang, R. (2023). Firm-level climate change exposure. The Journal of Finance, 78(3), 1449–1498. https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13219

31. Shao, T., Pan, X., Li, X., Zhou, S., Zhang, S., & Chen, W. (2022). China's industrial decarbonization in the context of carbon neutrality: A sub-sectoral analysis based on integrated modelling. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 170, 112992. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2022.112992

32. Shen, F., Liu, B., Luo, F., Wu, C., Chen, H., & Wei, W. (2021). The effect of economic growth target constraints on green technology innovation. Journal of Environmental Management, 292, 112765. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112765

33. Teece, D. J., Pisano, G., & Shuen, A. (1997). Dynamic capabilities and strategic management. Strategic Management Journal, 18(7), 509–533. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0266(199708)18:7%3C509::AID-SMJ882%3E3.0.CO;2-Z

34. TCFD. (2023). Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures: Status report 2023. Financial Stability Board. https://www.fsb.org/2023/10/2023-tcfd-status-report-task-force-on-climate-related-financial-disclosures/

35. Venturini, A. (2022). Climate change, risk factors and stock returns: A review of the literature. International Review of Financial Analysis, 79, 101934. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2021.101934

36. White, H. (1980). A heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimator and a direct test for heteroskedasticity. Econometrica, 48(4), 817–838. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912934

37. World Bank. (2023). State and trends of carbon pricing 2023. World Bank. https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099805106052321586

38. Zhakiyev, N., Sagadatova, N., Ismagulova, G., Bakdolotov, A., & Biloshchytskyi, A. (2024). Hybrid technico-economical modeling of the mid-term green economy and low-carbon development strategy of Kazakhstan. ES Energy & Environment, 25, 1235. https://doi.org/10.30919/esee1235