Migration Attractiveness of Kazakhstan: The Role of Real Income and Regional Disparities

Migration is an important factor of socio-economic development, influencing labor markets, demographic structure, human capital, and regional development. This study aims to analyze the dynamics and spatial disparities of external migration in Kazakhstan for 2001–2024 and to assess the role of socio-economic factors, particularly real household income, in shaping migration inflows. The study applies comparative cross-country analysis, regional spatio-temporal analysis, Pearson correlation analysis, OLS regression with Newey–West standard errors, the Augmented Dickey–Fuller test, residual-based cointegration analysis, and a first-difference model. The results show that the highest positive migration balances were recorded in Almaty city, Almaty region, Mangystau region, and Astana city, while negative values remained in North Kazakhstan, East Kazakhstan, Karaganda, Abay, Zhambyl, and Ulytau regions. Correlation analysis revealed strong positive associations between migration and GDP (r = 0.92), investment (r = 0.91), construction volume (r = 0.90), and real household income (r = 0.89), while poverty showed a negative correlation (r = -0.81). The results of the OLS regression showed a statistically significant positive relationship between real incomes and migration inflows. However, the cointegration test did not confirm a stable long-term relationship (p = 0.144), and the first-differences model did not reveal a statistically significant short-term relationship (p = 0.3454). The results show that migration processes in Kazakhstan are related to the income level of the population, but at the same time depend on a broader set of factors, including the state of the labor market, regional differences, infrastructure and institutional conditions.

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