Қазақстанның сүт секторының дамуындағы экономикалық факторлар: эконометриялық талдау

Молочный сектор играет важную роль в обеспечении продовольственной безопасности Казахстана, однако его развитие характеризуется структурными диспропорциями, ограниченной технологической модернизацией и высокой зависимостью от производственных и инвестиционных факторов. Цель исследования оценить взаимосвязь инвестиционных, ценовых и производственных факторов с динамикой производства молока в Казахстане за 2004–2024 гг. с учетом лаговых эффектов и структурного разрыва официальной статистики начиная с 2022 г. Информационную базу составили ежегодные данные Продовольственной и сельскохозяйственной организации ООН и Бюро национальной статистики Республики Казахстан за 2004–2024 гг. Применены описательная статистика, корреляционный анализ Пирсона, тесты ADF и KPSS, множественная регрессия методом наименьших квадратов, диагностика мультиколлинеарности и анализ альтернативных спецификаций. Результаты показали, что предпочтительная модель объясняет 95,3% вариации объема производства молока. Наиболее значимая положительная связь установлена для реальных инвестиций в сельское хозяйство (β = 0,461; p = 0,002) и средней молочной продуктивности коров (β = 0,305; p = 0,018). Индекс цен производителей не продемонстрировал статистически значимой связи с объемом производства (β = 0,021; p = 0,836). Учет пересмотра официальной статистики за 2022–2024 гг. существенно повысил объясняющую способность модели. Полученные результаты показывают, что основными факторами развития молочного сектора Казахстана выступают инвестиции и повышение продуктивности, тогда как ценовые сигналы без технологической модернизации не обеспечивают устойчивого увеличения производства.

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