Экономические факторы доходного неравенства: панельный анализ данных по 93 странам

Доходное неравенство представляет собой существенную характеристику социально-экономического развития, поскольку увеличение совокупного выпуска не тождественно расширению участия различных групп населения в распределении создаваемого дохода. Цель исследования — выявить экономические факторы, демонстрирующие устойчивую статистическую связь с изменениями доходного неравенства внутри стран, на основе панельных данных по 93 странам за 2002–2021 гг. Эмпирическую основу исследования составили данные World Development Indicators и Poverty and Inequality Platform Всемирного банка. Выборка охватывает 93 страны за 2002-2021 гг. и включает 1 369 наблюдений типа «страна-год» в рамках несбалансированной панели. В исследовании применены методы описательной статистики, корреляционного анализа, диагностики мультиколлинеарности и панельного регрессионного анализа. Результаты исследования показали устойчивую отрицательную связь доходного неравенства с уровнем экономического развития: увеличение ВВП на душу населения на 1% связано со снижением индекса Джини примерно на 0,048 пункта (p<0,01). Повышение уровня безработицы на 1 процентный пункт соответствует увеличению индекса Джини на 0,068 пункта (p<0,01), а увеличение торговой открытости на 10 процентных пунктов ВВП - росту индекса Джини примерно на 0,27 пункта (p<0,01). Подобные зависимости сохраняются при изменении спецификации модели и раздельном оценивании индекса Джини, рассчитанного по доходам и потреблению. Оценки темпа роста ВВП, природной ренты, урбанизации и инфляции характеризуются меньшей устойчивостью. Дальнейшие исследования целесообразно ориентировать на применение динамических панельных моделей, инструментальных переменных и альтернативных баз данных по неравенству.

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